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A.West

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  1. On the topic of why Objectivists (advocates of reason) would favor ancient Greece over ancient China, it's pretty obvious. Aristotle practically established the field of pro-reason philosophy. Chinese philsophy, a blend of Confucianism, Taoism, Buddhism, and Legalism, is something that Chinese people are still suffering the consequences of. It still leads to a culture that focuses on a focus on others and one's status and duties relative to others, a willingness to accept contradictions, a negative ethical judgement of profit, self-interest, and individualism. We have discussed Chinese philosophy before on this forum. See, for example my discussion here: http://forum.ObjectivismOnline.com/index.p...ost&p=56102 http://forum.ObjectivismOnline.com/index.p...=post&id=73 (see my attachment in the above post of a paper co-written in 2002) or http://forum.ObjectivismOnline.com/index.p...=1328&st=25 Below are two key and contrasting takes on knowledge from a major philosopher from Greece and China: Compare these two passages, written at approximately the same time in history, and ask yourself which one an advocate of reason should study: “He who examines the most general features of existence, must investigate also the principles of reasoning. For he who gets the best gasp of his respective subject will be most able to discuss its basic principles. So that he who gets the best grasp of existing things qua existing must be able to discuss the basic principles of all existence; and he is the philosopher. And the most certain principle of all is that about which it is impossible to be mistaken... It is clear, then, that such a principle is the most certain of all and we can state it thus: "It is impossible for the same thing at the same time to belong and not belong to the same thing at the same time and in the same respect." -Aristotle, Metaphysics, The sage never has a mind of his own; He considers the minds of the common people to be his mind. To pursue learning, learn more day by day; To pursue the Way, unlearn it day by day: Unlearn and then unlearn again Until there is nothing to pursue; No end pursued, no end ungained. It is by sheathing intellect's bright light that the sage remains at one with his own self, ceasing to be aware of it, by placing it behind. -Lao Tzu “Tao Te Ching”
  2. Interesting interview with Dennis Miller recently. He identified himself as very much a fan of Ayn Rand, and gave Dr. Brook a good opportunity to present key ideas. The interview begins about 2/3rds into the show. http://www.dennismillerradio.com/programhi...71E161?pid=1237
  3. Keep in mind that money/currency is not the source of wealth. It's how wealth is measured at a given moment in time. The point of savings is to have claims on others' goods and services in the future. Ultimately, the only thing that can give you such claims is to have ownership of valuable goods and services yourself. This is why equities are good long-run (though not necessarily good short term) protectors of savings from inflation. For example, even after an imagined currency meltdown a global food company will still be providing services worth approximately as much as before, in real terms. Similarly, if your own profession offers real value to others, it can be a source of wealth regardless of what happens to the currency. Fixed income (e.g. bonds) on the other hand are typically claims directly linked to the value of a particular currency, and are inversely sensitive in value to inflation/devaluation. (TIPS or I-bonds can offer some partial protection against devaluation, but typically offer pretty low returns). I don't consider precious metals and commodities as such to be good long term investments, mostly because they have a 2000 year history of negative inflation adjusted returns, in aggregate. Much more valuable is investment in the minds and human effort that turns such commodities into useful goods. Productive assets, in other words. Real estate can be good, especially when bought at the right place and at the right time, and comes with tax advantages for many, but it is also a high-involvement asset requiring significant time and attention, with high transaction costs and sometimes low liquidity. One caution, however, if you overpay for stocks, they can disappoint. And in the short run, stocks do not generally react well to currency devaluations, inflation, rising interest rates, economic decline, especially if starting from a period of high valuations and expectations. The best investment of all is in your own capabilities/knowledge/ career development/ or business and or entrepreneurial opportunities that you have an edge in and interest you. Because of the time/reward effort involved in investing, it may well be better to focus your time on what you're good at, and leave most of your investment decisionmaking to professionals (e.g. buying funds).
  4. My five year old became somewhat interested in the topic after friends and relatives began talking to her about spending time in heaven with angels and God after they die. On the death aspect, I told her that it was probably a lot like going to sleep, was much like before she was born. I don't think that part is very real to her because she hasn't actually experienced the death of anyone significant to her. I also told her that the most important thing was to concentrate on learning things and doing the things she wanted to do in her life. On the angels and God aspect of the story, I reminded her of the many different fairy tales, and she knows some of the stories of Egyptian gods, and Greek gods and goddesses (her name is Athena after all). Then I said simply, that long ago people believed in witches, and magic, and gods that looked like Cats, and that many people grew up and stopped believing in fairy tales because they weren't true. But a lot of people still believe in this particular fairy tale, especially in America, while people in other countries believe in different fairy tales. But our family is all grown up, and we tell the truth, instead of still believing in fairy tales. Overall, she seems to have found the discussion satisfactory, and seems happy with the knowledge that she's more "grown up" or smarter than most people about fairy tale stories. I did suggest she not argue with the other kids about this, however, because they might get upset.
  5. In no particular order: Railroad Tycoon (old PC) RBI Baseball (NES) Gran Turismo series (PS2) SSX (PS2) Dance Dance Revolution (DDR Max) Great game concept except the pop music is irritating.
  6. In my area, New Jersey, Asian (Chinese) Supermarkets have much less expensive produce and meats than regular grocery stores. Costco also typically has very good deals on large supplies of meats/fish. Learning to cook from raw materials yourself can save a lot of money, but if you are doing it solo, it can get boring and tiresome. It also requires more up-front investment (equipment, education, technique, time). Pre-processed foods typically load up on inexpensive starches.
  7. I just received a personal message from someone who didn't do much homework on OO members: FROM: Sandra Kone. ABIDJAN, IVORYCOAST WEST AFRICA. DEAR SIR/MADAM. I GOT YOUR CONTACT INFORMATION THROUGH THIS SITE. AND I DECIDED TO CONTACT YOU,HOPING THAT BY ALMIGHTY GOD GRACE YOU WILL SUCCESSFULLY ASSIST ME OUT FROM MY SITUATION AFTER MY SEVEN GOOD DAYS PRAYERS AND FASTING OVER SEEKING FOR AN OVERSEES GUARDANCE . I AM Sandra Kone (22 YEARS OLD) THE ONLY DAUGHTER OF LATE CHIEF JOSEPH Kone WHO WAS A FAMOUS AND WEALTHY COCOA MERCHANT BASED IN ABIDJAN,THE ECONOMIC CAPITAL OF IVORYCOAST. I AM SEEKING FOR YOUR URGENT ATTENTION TO HELP ME TRANSFER THE SUM OF (US$10,500,000.00 )TEN MILLION FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND UNITED STATE OF AMERICAN DOLLARS INTO YOUR NOMINATED BANK ACCOUNT OVERSEAS FOR AN INVESTMENTS PURPOSES,SUCH AS REAL ESTATES MANAGEMENTS AND STOCK MARKERTS. THE FUND WAS DEPOSITED IN FIXED SUSPENCE ACCOUNT PLEASE , I AM WILLING TO OFFER YOU 20% OUT OF THIS MY TOTAL FUND AS YOUR COMMISSION FOR YOUR URGENT ASSISTANCE TO ME.PLEASE KINDLY WRITE IMMEDIATELY FOR MORE IMPORTANT DETAILS CONCERNING THIS MY MUTUAL TRANSACTION. NOTE: I HAVE ALL THE NECESSARY DOCUMENTS IN RELATION TO THIS MY FUND DEPOSITED BY MY LATE FATHER IN THE BANK. AND ALSO KINDLY REPLY ME ON THIS MY PRIVATE EMAIL ([email protected]) FOR CONFIDENTIAL AND SECURITY REASONS OK . THANKS. YOURS FAITHFULLY, Sandra Kone
  8. Government spending is the primary issue to focus upon. Debt and taxation are simply consequences of government spending. Defaulting upon existing government debt would be just as immoral as debasing the currency, and would have similarly disastrous consequences. If spending were miraculously immediately cut to police, courts, and national defense, plus the payment of interest and principal on existing debt, taxes would probably need to fall less slowly than spending for that to work. In any case, working out the technical details of retiring government debt should be about 1000 times easier than convincing the population to support the philosophical ideas that would allow such an economic program to be initiated and sustained.
  9. The answer is yes. In the early seventies for a short period, swiss franc deposits offered negative rates. This was because other currencies were devaluing, and it would be impractical to simply hold huge bundles of physical francs. World investors were fleeing devaluing currencies and buying swiss francs. For long periods of time I doubt savers would take negative rates. Instead, they would probably be taking on higher risk investments that offered positive nominal rates, and pure savings deposits would have lower popularity. I don't think in a free economy, even with a flat gold money supply, deflation would occur for long periods at a pace that was greater than the time preference premium wold overcome. So extended periods of negative rates would be unusual.
  10. Yes, I like Richard Strauss' music. When I was 17, I liked it even more, probably because it was easy to grasp. Zarathustra is now the only music of his I still regularly listen to.
  11. The worst thing in Epcot when I went there 3 years ago was a cartoon in "The Land" pavilion featuring Simba and other Lion King characters. As I waited in line the walls were covered with posters of children begging everyone to "save the earth". Then the movie was a cartoon about how the good guys stopped the bad guys from building a dam and developing beautiful lakefront condominiums, because that would have stolen the water from the desert animals. There are still lots of good things in Epcot and Disney World, but one must now really be on guard against the encroachment of modern culture. I would expect the new animal park to be particularly corrupt.
  12. I think Ayn Rand's description of RD's reaction made perfect sense. His mission was to plant seeds in HR's mind, while delivering justice to him. RD would know at what stage HR's progress was, because he's communicating with Francisco. Remember, it was Galt who would come to provide the final argument to the strikers. HR's reaction was just the sort of thing RD would have expected, at that stage of his development, because he knows that HR doesn't have the full context of knowledge required to properly evaluate him, and that HR's charge of "criminal" comes from his despair over the growing collapse of capitalist civilization, and his protest against the chaos. A doctor doesn't laugh or cry when an ill man coughs - he remains expressionless. RD was acting as HR's doctor, diagnosing his patient, and beginning to administer a cure. But RD would know that the real progress would be made as HR contemplated the event later that night, and in the future.
  13. The first near-analogy to CAPM I could think of came from Leibniz, also a rationalist, who deduced that God made sure we were living in the "Best of All Possible Worlds". http://www.philosophypages.com/hy/4j.htm#god As in the CAPM world, Leibniz concludes that free will is an illusion, (as everyone at all times is paying the perfect price for all assets, and everyone holds an optimal portfolio at all times.)
  14. I hold a CFA charter and have been working in securities analysis and portfolio managment for 15 years. I have written functions in the R language that calculates CAPM and Fama-French betas for US stocks. So I'm very familiar with MPT and CAPM, and think that their epistemological foundations are worth scrutinizing. I think the risk benefits of diversification are demonstrable, and diversification was around long before CAPM, so I think CAPM is the real issue to focus on, rather than lumping it together with other elements. For example, your link mentions both CAPM and the Fama-French 3-factor model, but the latter in key ways contradicts CAPM. Your link offers a decent overview, but I've seen more detailed explorations that get into its epistemological foundations. Most notably, a presentation of CAPM usually starts with its premises. My take on the CAPM: Rationalist and anti-inductive, on principle. It's a deductively created model that admits most of its premises are false. It's conclusion, that market beta is the only relevant factor in expected returns, has been demonstrated to be false by market evidence. (You asked not to hear arguments against it, however, I mention it, because inductively arrived at theories don't usually have this problem). The fact that indexes are hard to beat is not an argument in favor of the CAPM. Furthermore - the portfolio optimization that the CAPM says we are all doing already (but we aren't), it actually extremely difficult to do properly, even by experts. One of my most memorable experiences during my MBA at NYU was arguing in e-mails about the rationalism of CAPM to my finance professor, and then he showed his philosophical hand by citing Karl Popper and Kuhn as providing the epistemological base of modern finance theory. Even if evidence supported CAPM, I'd continue to look for an inductively-grounded alternative framework to replace it. That said, I think market beta is an interesting calculation, with some potential uses, as are factor betas (which is why I took the trouble to program enhanced methods of beta calculation). But "Objective Investing" needs to move to an inductively arrived at, reality-based theory of investments, that considers the real nature of investors and the objects being valued, in a manner neither intrinsicist nor subjective. Here's somthing related to this subject I wrote a few years ago. http://www.capmag.com/articlePrint.asp?ID=1448 I'll stop there for now, it's getting late.
  15. You continue to repeat something regarding Salsman "ignoring" various Austrians. I believe he has observed and explicitly rejected a number of them. I think he's already presented the fundamental problems with Austrianism, so I'm not surprised that he's focusing on more productive efforts. It only took a few minutes folowing your links to find some of these leading Austrians of yours advocating a-priorism in epistemology, failing to reconcile subjective to objective value (despite claiming to do so), and promoting anarchism in politics. So I'd say they're evaluated pretty acurately. Some of them may in certain respects offer some useful technical insights on certain limited matters, but I'd say their "school" is in an advancing state of disrepair, and certainly is not incorporating essential philosophical truths provided by Objectivism. I don't understand how you can see their philosophical failures as non-essential, given the evidence they continue to provide.
  16. Salsman doesn't ignore post-Misesian Austrians. I have seen a number of references in his published works to certain people or ideas that might be "Austrian," e.g. Lawrence H. White. The Austrian school, as it has developed under the Von Mises Institute and Mises.org, is guilty of much worse than "bad terminology." As a school of thought, they ARE subjectivists, they aren't just misapplying the term. I have seen a few exceptions, trying desperately to reconcile Austrianism back to Menger/Aristotle/Ayn Rand, but these are just that, exceptions. Apriorism/rationalism/subjectivism is now deeply embedded in the Austrian "school". They are anti-inductive, and celebrate their particular take on epistemology. And that, ultimately, is why so many of them despise Ayn Rand and Objectivism. And that is why they care very little about Menger, the founder of "Austrian" economics. I think it is time for Objectivists to use Objectivist epistemology in buiding economics theory, and move beyond Austrianism. One should always look for good ideas, and sometimes they come from Austrians, sometimes from "supply-siders", sometimes from neo-classical economists. But one must always attempt to keep the foundations of one's knowledge rooted to reality, and systematically sound. I would like to see your list of brilliant work and/or people that falls under the Austrian School. Working in financial markets, I'm always looking for sources that extend my practical knowledge of economic reality.
  17. What is the basis of your smear that Salsman is "blissfully ignorant" of Austrian economic theory? The fact that he read and analyzed most or all of the major works in the school? His description of its flaws are dead-on, based on my observations of them over the past 15 years. Considering the significance Objectivists place on proper epistemology as the basis of genuine knowledge, and the continuing descent into Kantian subjectivism/skepticism/rationalism of most Miseans, I thought it should be obvious that in terms of methodology, they are a dead-end. Objectivists no longer need Austrians for polemics, and I've long concluded that it's time to move on to a more Objective, positive theory of economics. As for Salsman being a "supply sider," he certainly is no follower of Kudlow, or Wanniski, but the point is that most economics incorrectly focuses on demand, while the essence of economics relates to profitable production, so a focus on producers and production ("supply") is very objective. As for that link from the Miseans, I just laughed when Richard brought it to my attention. That particular pack of rats seem to consider the term "ARI-affiliated" as a negative one, (though I would consider the site more "ARI-freindly" than "ARI-affiliated"). The Miseans seemed to have missed the point of my article, extrapolated my views to represent some that were the opposite of what I had expressed and written in that and my other articles of the time. Funniest was their idea that I was boosting the stock market in 2000, when I had written a number of cautionary articles in that and previous years, articles which didn't make the company I worked for particularly happy. But yes, the Austrians can brag that they've predicted nearly every market crash and financial crisis - they've predicted at least 100 out of the last 5, after all. I've actually tracked some of these "Austrians'" financial newsletters over the past 15 years - their track records are generally pathetic. Which is why they market their investment newsletters with overblown promises and hype, and have massive customer churn rates. As for Rothbards' book and take on the depression, I wasn't able to force myself to read more than a little bit of it long ago in undergraduate school. But his followers' subjectivist Libertarianism and their desire to criminalize banking and convert banks into a network of warehouses is enough to convince me to stay far away from Rothbardianism.
  18. A.West

    Debitism

    1) in a free economy with free banking, it's a good assumption that a banknote (dollar) is specified as a quantity of gold 2) freely set interest rates anticipate and reflect inflation/deflation expectations of both borrowers and lenders. 3) The bank is ultimately just matching up a saver (CD investor) with a borrower. In a free economy, in aggregate, borrowers borrow money in order to finance positive net present value projects that expand the economy. Savers redeploy their excess capital to profit from and finance such economy-expanding projects. Banks generally make their money by collecting the spread as payment for their services in intermediating between savers and borrowers. 4) there is no reason to assume that the overall gold stock is precisely static. There would be a general and slow trend towards gradual increase, but with mining costs functioning as an automatic thermostat. Occasionally major new orebodies or refining/mining methods are discovered as well. In conclusion, your unrealistic assertions again fail to connect with reality, and certainly provide no basis to conclude that the "financial sector" disadvantages the "productive sector" (a false dichotomy) in a free economy. One interesting though slighly flawed book that illustrates the real benefits of financial system development on the overall economy is: The Wealth of Nations Rediscovered : Integration and Expansion in American Financial Markets, 1780-1850, by Robert E. Wright
  19. A.West

    Debitism

    CF, I think you're right that any fiat currency will initially be linked to a more tangible value. This is why many 3rd world countries initially peg their currencies to more established currencies (dollar, pound, euro), especially initially. But while I certainly don't defend fiat currencies and consider them inherently unstable and long-run inflationary, I do think that they do have at least an indirect link to real values. Sadly, it's probably through the taxation system. The government is able to extort value from producers, and spend it in the economy, and require payment in such terms. So a fiat currency involves some relationship between how many units there are, what kind of value it can extract from the economy, how much the govt is borrowing, etc. It's not just that the government has fooled people into thinking something totally worthless is still worth something, and that people are too lazy (have too much inertia) to reassess matters. Because when a government's fiat money units/economic value extraction relationship falls apart, people in financial markets can quite brutally punish that currency.
  20. A.West

    Debitism

    Felix, you are shifting the issue again, from banking to fiat money. I criticized the borrowed gold scenario, which was implied by Trudy to be the starting point for a refutation of the practicality of free banking under a gold standard. I don't think Objectivists need your help in understanding the evils of fiat money, and that's not what I was talking about. A system of fiat money combined with central banking is an entirely different subject. BTW, do you still believe that one man's gain must always result in another man's loss, in monetary units? Also, when you say barter is not a valid way to understand today's economy, what do you mean? That today's economy is not primarily about exchanging value for value? It must be exciting to be some sort of Keanu Reeves who sees through the matrix of lies that is a financial system and observes the pathetic futility of other people's productive efforts, perhaps chuckling or crying at the way they get cheated on every transaction they foolishly make, and every hour of labor they idiotically waste away. I'm not yet prepared to offer a formal thesis on the source of value for fiat money. Tentatively, I'd suggest that the value comes from the government's derivative claim on the productive effort and productive assets of its taxable base, sort of like the barter of the weath/effort that can be taxed from one person for that of another person. However, more than anything, I am critiquing the method involved in arguing for "Debitism" as I find it wholly deductive, floating, and rationalistic. I have learned that arguing with rationalists is pointless, as is time spent poking through word-salads. What is missing here is the inductive method. The problem is that financial system is an extremely high-level concept, built upon layer after layer of inductively grounded lower level concepts. It would take quite a long book to properly convey knowledge of the proper or improper workings of a financial system.
  21. A.West

    Debitism

    Once more for effect, I utterly reject the "borrowed gold scenario." It parallels neither the origins of money nor of banking, and I have no idea why anyone would play that game, when real alternatives are available. One must tie economic actions to values, not arbitrary scenarios that seem to kind of resemble real institutions, but actually don't. The tip off to the arbitrariness of the borrowed gold scenario should be obvious from the first sentence in which productive titans are supposed to sit on their hands waiting for Midas Mulligan to show up with a bag of coins. This scenario does not simply omit some details or frictions, IT IS A RIGGED GAME that nobody would play, and which has nothing to do with an actual economy or the purpose of banking and finance. Menger's "Principles of Economics" still remains free to download off of the internet, and the book has a chapter on the origins of money that is much better grounded in reality than this rationalistic web-spinning. http://www.mises.org/etexts/menger/principles.asp
  22. It was the Pitt screentime question that led me to hypothesize of a Francisco+Galt character merger. It would simplify the plot and keep him onscreen throughout, as in The Scarlet Pimpernell. Not ideal but it's conceivable. Hopefully the 2026 BBC miniseries will be more faithful to the plot. I'm assuming makeup and wardrobe can help make Jolie look more professional.
  23. If Jolie and Pitt can be signed at attractive terms, that means that the movie can virtually be assured of making money, which means it will be made. I think Jolie and Pitt could provide at least adequate performances, and they would probably learn something in the process. Jolie will probably think she's Dagny Taggart for a while. But it's going to be hard to fit her 3 men into less than 3 hours. Maybe the Francisco backstory will be dropped, and it becomes a Rearden vs Galt triangle. Maybe the characters of Galt and Francisco will be merged, as hard to imagine as that is. I think the movie will have to focus on the conflict and plot, not the philosophy, but that's probably a good thing for Objectivism. If the movie can get people interested in the plot/story, they may read the book, which is the only thing that can coherently convey the philosophy. Key conflicts I suspect would be highlighted in the movie: Rearden & Dagny vs. James & the world in the John Galt line building section Stay vs. Strike in the accelerating decline of the world section likely tied to the question of "Does Dagny choose Rearden or Galt?"
  24. A.West

    Debitism

    I utterly reject the "borrowed gold scenario." It parallels neither the origins of money nor of banking, and I have no idea why anyone would play that game, when real alternatives are available. One must tie economic actions to values, not arbitrary scenarios that kind of resemble real institutions but actually don't. Menger's "Principles of Economics" still remains free to download off of the internet.
  25. A.West

    Debitism

    This has got to be the most rationalistic threads I've ever read. For the rational people here, it could potentially provide a benefit, as one sometimes clarifies things in one's own mind by refuting someone else's argument. But the rationalism and evasion exhibted by others is breathtaking. Now I'm starting to understand the epistemological problems behind the Rothbardians and other various doomsday cults who go on about the financial system without even understanding what a bank does, or what money is. After a certain point, one can't continue to assume that there's an honest effort to understand reality in process. One little tip I'll throw in - banks supply only a tiny fraction of all loans. It is productive savers who ultimately make loans, using banks as their agents (intermediaries). Besides that, companies make massive interlocking loans to one another (called accounts payable & accounts receivable). Using "simultaneous repayment of all loans" as the standard of system's stability is like saying life on Earth is unstable because "if there was not a drop of rain anywhere on earth for one month we would all die". Also, don't let the Debitismists confuse their opposition to finance with opposition to central banking.
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