RationalBiker Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 I have been thinking about this for awhile and I don't really believe in luck as a concept. I have seen too many references to people as being lucky, unlucky, fortunate or unfortunate as though their preparation, behavior and actions had nothing to do with their outcomes. I envision some people thinking of luck as some unseen mystical force at work favoring some folks and slamming others. Me, I think it's merely intricate physics or other casual factors which are unknown, unpredictable or beyond calculation in determing their effects on the outcome excepting that they can sometimes be determined after the fact. For example, when shuffling cards most people truly can't predict or follow the pattern of the interweaving of the cards, yet the physics of movement and friction determine their order on a minute level. Thus, there is a perception of randomness, as well as luck or unluck when the cards are dealt. If our senses were attuned enough to follow the physics of the shuffling, we could know the results of the dealt cards assuming we knew their positions to begin with. Some card "mechanics" that can manipulate decks can actually do "perfect 1 to 1" shuffles and follow the cards as it is. What do you guys think and how would you define "luck"? VES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearmint Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 I would define 'good luck' to be the receiving of significant benefits from events that lie outwith your control (and possibly your knowledge), and 'bad luck' similarly to be receiving negative effects from events outside your control. The concept of randomness isn't really needed for luck to make sense, since the main elements of luck seems to be uncertainty and unpredictability rather than actual randomness - indeed anything significantly complex is likely to appear random to one that lacks the necessary knowledge. As for individual people being lucky, its almost a statistical certainty that given a large enough group of people, some of them are going to have many more instances of 'good luck' (as defined above) than 'bad luck', and hence might get the reputation of being lucky. Again, there doesn't have to be anything mystical going on that makes such a person innately predisposed to good fortune - it's purely a matter of statistics (although in reality I suspect it's a bit more complicated than this. For example, someone who has often benefitted from good luck might come to believe that he is 'just lucky', and this may make him more confident which causes future events to go his way, thus reinforcing his belief). On the other hand, what appears at first glance to be 'luck' might not always be so. To take your example of card games, a poor poker player might falsely assume that a good player who wins a lot is simply 'lucky', as all they observe is the fact that the good player seems to regularly get good hands and win a lot of money . Of course what the poor player fails to notice is that the good player is not relying purely on luck, but is deliberately only choosing to bet significant amounts of money when the odds are firmly in their favour. Indeed, it is often said that luck is the enemy of good poker players, rather than their friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinorityOfOne Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Luck occurs when uncontrolled and unpredicted events affect one's values. You have "good luck" when the effects benefit you, "bad luck" when they harm you. I don't think it's a bad concept in itself. But you often hear luck spoken of as though it's a property that people have, which is clearly nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F*ckCommunism Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 i believe luck does not exist. It is merely people attributing some mythos to the level of preparedness or unpreparedness... most "lucky" people are proactive, and most 'unlucky' don't want to admit they are as much to blame for their situation then anyone... i give my mother as an example... she attributes all of the good things in her life as coming from God, whereas i attribute her good things to all thge hard work and integrity she fills each day with... she belittles the effort she gives and rewards the non-existant god with thanks for things she has rightfully earned... God and luck are equals in my eyes... non-existant... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Betsy Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 What do you guys think and how would you define "luck"? I would define luck as factors beyond one's control which have an effect on one's values. There definitely is such a thing, but I don't think luck is all that important in life. I agree with the saying, "The harder I work, the luckier I get." The "work" involved is exercising the forethought necessary to control those aspects of reality that affect one's values. If my house is damaged by an earthquake, that is bad luck. As to whether I decided to live near an earthquake fault line, bought a well-built house, bought earthquake insurance in advance, etc., those were choices and not luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RationalBiker Posted June 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Well, I suppose I worded it poorly when I said I didn't believe in it as a concept. Clearly it is a concept or a description of how a given unforeseen outcome affects one's values. My main point is that the term is too frequently used to subvert the concepts of initiative, responsibility, preparedness, intelligence and effort. I find myself avoiding the term for that very reason. A friend of mine seems to habitually have "bad luck" in interpersonal affairs. Now, I know that several people describe his personality as abrasive, obnoxious and at times condescending. He also relishes conflict, a perpetual warrior if you will. I have tried to point out to him these issues as I can see why they have these perceptions, but he "is who he is" and is unwillingly to try to change because he isn't going to "take sh-- from no one". Yet when folks don't like him, he can't seem to understand why. Therefore, he continues to have "bad luck" with people. He is otherwise pretty intelligent and accomplished. VES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danielshrugged Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 I agree that luck, though often misused, is a valid concept. I'm posting something in the Member Essays section that relates to the issue of luck. It's a review of a lecture about accidents. Luck is, after all, a kind of accident. How do Accidents Happen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nimble Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 i dont think anyone in this forum sees luck as some mystical force. I play poker all the time. In casinos, at home, in tournaments. I have won a decent amount of money too (i lose too, i guess its just LUCK). But luck as a concept is valid depending on your defintion. Cards are in a random order, which is beyond your possible knowledge. You can use probability, you can even come to certain conclusions some times. Like if you have 2 kings and two kings are in the community cards, then you know that no more kings will show up in the deck. But often hands come down to a certain amount of LUCK that just happens. Now of course the cards were shuffled, someone did put them in that order (although not intending to, since shuffling is random). Circumstances happen for specific cause, but because they are beyond one's capacity to know, it is considered luck. That would be how i explain it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barstool Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 I have been thinking about this for awhile and I don't really believe in luck as a concept. I agree with you completely. Although I've often been caught calling myself or others as "lucky" in the past, it's just a buzzword. It's an all encompassing word that humans came up with in order to put a label on something which the don't understand or have a label for. In reality, there's probably a real, (simple) explaination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Weiss Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Although I've often been caught calling myself or others as "lucky" in the past, it's just a buzzword. It's an all encompassing word that humans came up with in order to put a label on something which the don't understand or have a label for. In reality, there's probably a real, (simple) explaination. I don't know if the explanation is always simple, but I believe in most instances it is. A good deal of it I think is the result of just not being very aware of yourself and the nature of the choices you tend to make. As someone already mentioned, if you think you are "unlucky in love", odds are you are probably tending to pick the wrong romantic partners or you need to work on your own behavior in relationships. Or, if you tend to have a lot of car accidents maybe it has something to do with your being a careless driver. In other words, to a considerable extent you will "make your own luck". Other times, having nothing particularly to do with you, things will happen and it's just a matter of "statistical probability". So, you have the stories of the people who just happened to choose to go to (or not go to) the WTC on 9/11. Yeah, you can say they were lucky (or unlucky). But on any given day, there were *always* a certain number of people who did or didn't go to the WTC. There's certainly nothing mystical about it. It's similar to the people who claim to have had "premonitions" or "dreams" which turn out to be true. Well, hello, how many of these so-called "premonitions" or "dreams" *don't* turn out to be true. Those you don't hear about. The 1 in a million that do turn out to be true, those you hear about and they supposedly prove that there are mystical forces at work in such situations! One comment has always stuck in my mind to illustrate this issue of "statistical probability". I believe it was in a book on the subject the title of which I can't recall. Suppose you are at Disneyland and you run into someone you haven't seen in years. Your reaction might be, "Wow, what an amazing coincidence!". The author pointed out that it wasn't that amazing at all. Apparently there are so many people at Disneyland at any given time that the probability is much higher than in normal situations that you will run into someone you haven't seen in years. So, if you have a tendency to think you are lucky or unlucky in regard to something or that some particular occurence was lucky or unlucky, if you think about it along these lines, it makes more sense. (In any event there is certainly never anything mystical about). Fred Weiss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwakeAndFree Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 I think "good luck" is a beautiful phrase. When used properly it implies: I trust you will make all the right decisions, and therefore I wish you that the circumstances will be the best possible for you to operate in. One does not say "good luck" to someone who is obviously not up to the challenge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capitalism Forever Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 It's a silly thread all right, but for exactly the opposite reason. A perfectly valid, objective definition of the concept of "luck" was given in the second post, but several posters continue to question the concept's validity, without ever referencing the definition. It is true that "success-challenged" people often attribute to luck things that should properly be attributed to one's choices; it is also true that the same people often appeal to the mystical and use the word "luck" while they do so. But the fact that some people abuse a concept doesn't invalidate that concept. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capitalism Forever Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 I think "good luck" is a beautiful phrase. When used properly it implies: I trust you will make all the right decisions, and therefore I wish you that the circumstances will be the best possible for you to operate in. One does not say "good luck" to someone who is obviously not up to the challenge. Well stated. Mazel tov! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RationalBiker Posted June 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 One does not say "good luck" to someone who is obviously not up to the challenge. Except when it's followed by the phrase, "You're going to need it." VES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RationalBiker Posted June 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 What a silly thread. Feel free to avoid it then. VES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prometheus Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 I like the line - "Chance favours the prepared mind." Not in the sense that someone actually picks and chooses who to make lucky, but just another way of putting what Betsy said "The harder I work, the luckier I get." Dinesh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aynfan Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 Feel free to avoid it then.You're the second person not to take notice of what I said, feel free to avoid it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barstool Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 It's similar to the people who claim to have had "premonitions" or "dreams" which turn out to be true. Well, hello, how many of these so-called "premonitions" or "dreams" *don't* turn out to be true. Those you don't hear about. The 1 in a million that do turn out to be true, those you hear about and they supposedly prove that there are mystical forces at work in such situations! Are you likening these "premonitions" to something akin to psychic ability? What is your opinion on that? Do you describe psychic ability as "luck" or something that can be described by statistic (in)probability? From my personal experience, both with myself and my mother, psychic phenomena (for lack of a better description), is for real. How does one explain this, or is there really no explaination (that we know of yet)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgargan Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 I would define 'good luck' to be the receiving of significant benefits from events that lie outwith your control (and possibly your knowledge), and 'bad luck' similarly to be receiving negative effects from events outside your control. To me the word (un)lucky, is just used to describe an event that was against the odds. For example in Holdem Poker, if I get dealt two aces and don't win the pot, this is against the odds and can therefore be described as unlucky. The person who beat my two aces, started with an inferior hand and inferior odds and was therefore lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RationalBiker Posted June 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 You're the second person not to take notice of what I said, feel free to avoid it. Demonstrate how I didn't take notice of what you wrote? I read what you wrote and didn't think it wasn't worth commenting on. It would appear that you reference luck the same way agnostics relate to a god. There is no evidence to demonstrate luck is a mystical force or an entity so considering that it could be is non-sense. VES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearmint Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 To me the word (un)lucky, is just used to describe an event that was against the odds. For example in Holdem Poker, if I get dealt two aces and don't win the pot, this is against the odds and can therefore be described as unlucky. The person who beat my two aces, started with an inferior hand and inferior odds and was therefore lucky. It depends how you define 'against the odds' - are you taking just one particular event out of context? Yes, given any one instance of getting pocket aces, the odds are slightly in favour of you winning. But let's say you got dealt 2 aces five times over the space of a week. In this case, the odds would certainly not be in favour of you winning on all 5 occasions, so you couldn't really claim to have been unlucky on the hands that you lost - to actually win all 5 would require an enormous amount of luck (by your definition). If I have a 99% chance of successfully performing an action then the odds are going to be heavily in my favour, but if I attempt to perform it 100 times, then I'm likely to fail at least once. Can I really say that I was 'unlucky' on the occassions that I failed, simply because taken as an isolated event the odds were in my favour? edit: Not to mention the fact that you might have played your two aces badly (eg not raising enough preflop and so on). A lot of people seem to blame bad luck in poker when a closer analysis might actually reveal poor play (for example, people with three-of-a-kind who allow others to draw for cheap on the river and then get beat by a completed straight) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RationalBiker Posted June 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 What a silly thread. All hasten to acknowledge something called luck and rush all the faster to say it is not mystical, but it is unknowable. Now here's some real irony!!! Aynfan posted this previously.... Posted: Jun 15 2004, 04:06 PM If you don't have patience with what appear to us "dumb" questions, just ignore the post. Let someone who has more patience handle the neophytes. They may be genuine seekers of truth. That is just TOO funny to me!!! VES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DPW Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 To me the word (un)lucky, is just used to describe an event that was against the odds. For example in Holdem Poker, if I get dealt two aces and don't win the pot, this is against the odds and can therefore be described as unlucky. The person who beat my two aces, started with an inferior hand and inferior odds and was therefore lucky. Well, you probably didn't bet enough before the flop. Don't slow play a hand like that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
source Posted June 19, 2004 Report Share Posted June 19, 2004 I consider it luck when I beat the odds without the ability to control all the factors involved in a certain action. For example, if I bet a dollar on roulette on number 35 and I win, then I consider myself lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Weiss Posted June 20, 2004 Report Share Posted June 20, 2004 From my personal experience, both with myself and my mother, psychic phenomena (for lack of a better description), is for real. How does one explain this, or is there really no explaination (that we know of yet)? You'll have to be more specific as to what you are referring to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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