2007 Australian Federal election

[John McVey]

Oh god. The left have won the 2007 Australian Federal election. While the Howard government was hardly as pure as the driven snow and had quite a bit that was the absolute pits, they were not as bad compared to Labor as the Bush Republicans were to the Gore or Kerry Democrats.

If you guys have any Australian shares or bonds then I'd strongly recommend re-evaluating your portfolios and watching things closely as one of the intended policies is for Labor to stick its paws into various pension funds to spend the money on various 'social development' projects. At the moment those funds are the real deal, consisting of holdings of actual capital provisions and productive assets, rather than mythical lockboxes containing Federal Treasury IOU's. The sale of the shares and bonds will drive their prices down (except for recipients of largesse), as well as the later consequence being a lowering of the value of the AUD relative to the USD. It will be worsened by other policy prescriptions. Who the hell knows what they will actually do and when, as one of their more vocal (and nutcasier) members (Peter Garrett, ex Midnight Oil frontman) let the cat out of the bag and said they would do a lot of things differently from what they had promised.

I'm not going to hazard much of a guess as to what went wrong.

JJM

Update: Oh great, it gets worse - greenies and an overt nanny-stater possibly holding the balance of power in the Senate. Wonnnnnnnderful.

Edited November 25, 2007 by John McVey

[fletch]

You have my condolences. Looks like you will be signing onto Kyoto soon as well. How very lucky you are. Hopefully the US will not be following Australia's leftward turn in our 2008 elections.

[John McVey]

Looks like you will be signing onto Kyoto soon as well.

Things could easily be steady-as-she-goes for the first term as being radical changes. For the most part Rudd & Co were promising many similar policies to Howard & Co, such as tax cuts and a bureaucracy-slashing razor gang - but a lot hangs on Labor internal politicking and how much force-of-character Rudd has. If they dislike him or his ideas enough we can still end up with a different PM again even without an election. Parliamentary political dynamics are different to Congressional because here the Executive is a subset of the Legislature instead of being separate.

Other commentators in Ozblogistan are suggesting that things will get only a little worse because Rudd is still significantly to the right of UK's Blair or Brown. Possibly, though I think they're underestimating the impact that the stealing from the superannuation pool and the Future Fund will have on the economy and what Labor's response to it will be. True, it was Labor who got super up and running in the first place, but that was a whole generation ago now.

Then there are the four loons holding balance in the senate and what they, in cahoots with the like-minded faction within Labor, are able to get through as payment for their support. Chinese curse indeed.

Hopefully the US will not be following Australia's leftward turn in our 2008 elections.

There are many explanations of what went wrong. I don't think it can easily be pinned down to an actual leftward turn among the populace. That politically it has ended up that way may be temporary, if the Coalition can pick up the pieces. Nevertheless, I too hope that things don't turn out similarly for the US - the consequences of that would be much greater - but that also depends on exactly who and what your options will actually end up being.

JJM

[John McVey]

If they dislike him or his ideas enough we can still end up with a different PM again even without an election. Parliamentary political dynamics are different to Congressional because here the Executive is a subset of the Legislature instead of being separate.

Silly me, I realised that many of you will already be familiar with this set-up. I imagine the situation is similar (if not identical) to how Canadian federal politics work, since we're both Commonwealth countries using the Parliamentary system.

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All this being said, even before that lottery thread came up I found myself asking the obvious question: am I filled with the desire to emigrate? Despite this, I retain my original assessment I made back in the 90's when Betsy asked me about it during the Hypermall days. I'm comfortable here, the body politic is still moving slowly to a nice secular right (the unions do not have the power they like to delude themselves that they have, and religion still plays little role in political life), and this election was the result of anger about issues-of-the-moment. I'm staying here.

The Samizdatistas think the next three years are going to be fun:

Some of my friends in Australia are a bit down in the dumps about the election result, although they all predicted it, but my message to them is simple - if you can not do anything about the farce you might as well enjoy it.

There will be plenty of laughs over the next three years.

I agree, I guess. Check your portfolios, get ready for letters to editors and other activist activities as appropriate, then load up on beer and pass around the popcorn.

JJM

Edited November 26, 2007 by John McVey

[gags]

Of course the media here are portraying the election results as another major international defeat for Bush (anything that happens is always a defeat for Bush), saying that Rudd will be at odds with the US on both Iraq and Global Warming. I suppose we'll just have to see how things shape up.

[John McVey]

Our new government is claiming it will make good on promised tax cuts. These came to $A31b worth, roughly $US25b. Remember that Australia's population is about 21m when you ponder those figures.

We went to the election promising this, we went to the election intending to do it and we will do it... We'll do it partly to keep our word but we'll also do it because it's the right thing to do.

A statement like this, made by a centre-left party, and despite loud calls for big spending. Incredible! Whether or how far they will actually follow through is another matter, but it would a PR disaster if they didn't.

Of course, care must be taken not to read too much into this. Labor does talk about justice and the like, but keeping their word by following through on election promises is no more an example of integrity than (as Dr Peikoff pointed out) Hitler following through on promises to eliminate the Jews - and as a group of leftists you can guess what they mean by "justice." Note that the cuts are specifically targeted at low and middle income earners, leaving the most productive still considerably taxed. A fair chunk of the motivation was also plain pragmatism. Nevertheless, it reflects well on the body politic that not only did the main leftist party have to make such promises to get elected but also fell compelled to follow through, battling against some of its own major voices and constituencies in the process. That such words were uttered in public is definitely a good sign.

Of course the media here are portraying the election results as another major international defeat for Bush (anything that happens is always a defeat for Bush), saying that Rudd will be at odds with the US on both Iraq and Global Warming. I suppose we'll just have to see how things shape up.

Back in late November the news programs here showed that when Hillary learned of the outcome of the Australian election she was ecstatic. Well then, that being the case, should she win her own election it may be productive to remind her and her followers of who she had supported and thence to pressure her to follow their lead by bringing in tax cuts to the US. In a similar vein, I hear that the Massachussets state income tax is possibly about to get killed. Maybe, just maybe, the whole tax cuts idea may gain momentum and spread far indeed.

JJM