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softwareNerd

Ukraine

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Are you saying there is a chance that NATO will go to war with Russia over Crimea alone?

 

No, I am saying that if NATO gets Crimea, then they will be in a position to wage war with Russia.

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No, I am saying that if NATO gets Crimea, then they will be in a position to wage war with Russia.

Got it.

I don't think NATO actually hopes to get Russia out of Crimea, far less have NATO take control. It's something they can use to turn up the rhetoric about Russia's invasion. If Crimea were to secede and become an independent country close under Russia's orbit, it may actually be a good thing for the rest of Ukraine.

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If Russia were to take all of Ukraine, I think it would not result in large scale war. The opposite would be true if NATO got a hold of Crimea.

 

Whether you would like to see NATO go to war with Russia is one thing. The reality is that they probably would is another. The stars would be aligned... Russia: a natural resource-rich country which is already an antagonist and which is at an enourmous military disadvantage. If NATO gets Crimea, I don't see Europe just leaving Russia alone and letting it gradually lose influence over Europe over the course of a decade. No, the west will seize the opportunity and a great spike in the price of natural resources will just be one of the consequences.

You do understand that Russia is a nuclear power, right?

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In mid 2013, Gallup conducted a face-to-face poll of 1000 Ukrainians, asking what type of political system is most suitable for Ukraine.

 

  1. The former Soviet System
  2. A system that has lot of similarity to the Soviet one, but is more democratic and market-based
  3. A strong authoritarian system that places order above freedom
  4. Monarchy or hereditary autocracy
  5. Western style democratic republic
  6. Other / refused to answer / etc.

Of responses from Western Ukraine, 23% wanted one of the first three, from Central Ukraine it was 58%, and from Eastern Ukraine 68%. 

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You do understand that Russia is a nuclear power, right?

 

Yes and I already stated that despite having nukes, their military is outdated. That's why Putin wants Crimea so badly. Because of the missile shield which would give NATO an overwhelming military advantage.

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Yes and I already stated that despite having nukes, their military is outdated. That's why Putin wants Crimea so badly. Because of the missile shield which would give NATO an overwhelming military advantage.

You're claiming that NATO wants to invade Russia. I implied that that's ridiculous, because Russia can simply respond with its nuclear arsenal, obliterating major population centers in Europe and North America.

That makes the notion that NATO can invade Russia absurd. Your retort?

Because of the missile shield

What missile shield? There is no missile shield guarding against Russia's nuclear capabilities, there are no plans for such missile shield, and there is no realistic possibility of constructing such shield given current technology. Edited by Nicky

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You're claiming that NATO wants to invade Russia. I implied that that's ridiculous, because Russia can simply respond with its nuclear arsenal, obliterating major population centers in Europe and North America.

That makes the notion that NATO can invade Russia absurd. Your retort?

What missile shield? There is no missile shield guarding against Russia's nuclear capabilities, there are no plans for such missile shield, and there is no realistic possibility of constructing such shield given current technology.

 

Then explain why Putin is so dead set on getting little old Crimea. If you think he is willing to go through all this just to retain a tiny bit of Russian influence over Europe, I think that's very inaccurate and ignorant of the greater geopolitical context.

 

Why is Crimea so important? Because of its military influence. That's it.

 

Having a nuke does not shield a country from getting attacked. The circumstances under which Russia would actually use a nuke can't be fully predicted, but they sure as hell are not going to drop a nuke on Europe unless the situation is so dire that the mere existence of Russia is in serious jeapordy. Even then, I think the odds of them using a nuke are slim seeing as they are no longer led by ideologues as the Soviet Union was, but merely pragmatic power mongers who just want to retain their wealth should war break out.

 

All in all, the importance of Crimea can only be explained by it's military influence. Therefore Putin's motivations are military. And regardless of whether its a nuclear power, Russia cannot afford to have NATO acquire Crimea. By your logic, it doesn't matter how stagnant a countries military development is... as long as it has a nuke. I think that is absurd.

Edited by Reason_Being

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Then explain why Putin is so dead set on getting little old Crimea.

Crimea is important to Russia militarily, and also from a nationalist (greater-Russia covering Russian speakers) perspective. I don't think there's any debate on this.

At first, when you said that Putin wants to stop NATO from acquiring it, I thought you meant that NATO had military designs on it. However, after your clarification, I think that what you meant is that Ukraine was on a path to joining EU, and that would have lead -- over time -- to joining NATO. And that way Crimea would end up as part of a NATO country.

Is that what you meant?

Edited by softwareNerd

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Crimea is important to Russia militarily, and also from a nationalist (greater-Russia covering Russian speakers) perspective. I don't think there's any debate on this.

At first, when you said that Putin wants to stop NATO from acquiring it, I thought you meant that NATO had military designs on it. However, after your clarification, I think that what you meant is that Ukraine was on a path to joining EU, and that would have lead -- over time -- to joining NATO. And that way Crimea would end up as part of a NATO country.

Is that what you meant?

Yes precisely and it's nothing new, really. Everyone knows that Putin wants to keep Crimea out of the hands of NATO as Ukraine drifts towards the EU.

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Yes precisely and it's nothing new, really. Everyone knows that Putin wants to keep Crimea out of the hands of NATO as Ukraine drifts towards the EU.

Yes, and I don't think anyone here would say otherwise.

Putin seems to be fast-tracking a permanent take-over of Crimea. In a way, this shows he sees that Ukraine as a whole is going to be a little less in his orbit. For Ukraine, it will take 5% of the population out of play. Since the voting population leans pro-Russia, it would probably mean about a 3% swing toward pro-Western Ukrainian parties in any Ukrainian election that excludes Crimea.

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Then explain why Putin is so dead set on getting little old Crimea.

No. You explain how NATO plans to invade a nuclear power, since you're the one who built your argument on that claim.

Then, if your explanation makes any sense whatsoever, I'll continue the discussion by answering your question.

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No. You explain how NATO plans to invade a nuclear power, since you're the one who built your argument on that claim.

Then, if your explanation makes any sense whatsoever, I'll continue the discussion by answering your question.

 

I've already stated that having a nuke does not deter war. If that were the case, there would have been no point to the Cold War. And 9/11 wouldn't have happened.

 

Crimea's value to Putin is its strategic military significance. That fact alone suggests that Putin is thinking future war plans. If Crimea eventually falls into the hands of NATO, that would put Russia in a weak position regardless of their nuclear arms. I think you are being short sighted in writing off my argument. By your logic there can never be a World War 3 because everyone has nukes. It doesn't work that way, there is always a threat of war and there is always subtext beneath military stand-offs such as this Ukraine ordeal.

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I've already stated that having a nuke does not deter war. If that were the case, there would have been no point to the Cold War. And 9/11 wouldn't have happened.

 

Crimea's value to Putin is its strategic military significance. That fact alone suggests that Putin is thinking future war plans. If Crimea eventually falls into the hands of NATO, that would put Russia in a weak position regardless of their nuclear arms. I think you are being short sighted in writing off my argument. By your logic there can never be a World War 3 because everyone has nukes.

That's your opinion. My opinion is that you don't understand how logic works.

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That's your opinion. My opinion is that you don't understand how logic works.

 

Well if you view any questioning of your point of view as a lack of logic then that's too bad, I guess there's no point in discussing this.

I see nothing illogical in stating that nukes don't prevent war in all cases, as has been proven by history.

Maybe in your mind, logic works in a different way than it does in reality?

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Aaaand the US just announced the sanctions: looks like Russia just got Crimea, in exchange for sanctions against seven people (travel bans and asset freezes - though of course they all had weeks to move any assets they had in the US). Basically, nothing.

I suppose Eastern Ukraine is next, now. If this is the extent of Obama's "costs", then Putin will be happy to pay it.

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I view your childish straw men as a lack of logic.

 

Please indicate where I used a straw man.

 

I'm also curious as to why you feel the need to use such aggressive, borderline hostile tone. Lighten up.

Edited by Reason_Being

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I don't understand the whole way the Western press is treating the issue. What makes the political system of Russia worse than a system that is envisioned for Ukraine by the current regime of Ukraine with its Nazi-like elements? Those are parties of the kind that would cause riots in the streets and a furious demand for immediate abolition in any Western European country if they were to take over, but yet the EU has the hipocrisy of supporting that government?

Don't the Russians of Crimea have a right to secede if the Ukranian government is aimed at discriminating against them?

Surely state sovereignty isn't an argument, it all depends on which government protects individual rights better, independent of what its citizens think.

Edited by DiscoveryJoy

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Rights of Crimean Russians being violated by folk from the rest of Ukraine is a Russian bogeyman. There are nationalist elements among the anti-Russian political parties, but they do not define the anti-Russian forces/opinion. As far as I know, the one thing they did -- enact that Russian would no longer be an official language -- was un-done. Crimea already had a fair degree of autonomy within Ukraine. There was no real fear of their rights being ursurped any more than for the average Ukrainian.

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I don't understand the whole way the Western press is treating the issue. What makes the political system of Russia worse than a system that is envisioned for Ukraine by the current regime of Ukraine with its Nazi-like elements? Those are parties of the kind that would cause riots in the streets and a furious demand for immediate abolition in any Western European country if they were to take over, but yet the EU has the hipocrisy of supporting that government?

Don't the Russians of Crimea have a right to secede if the Ukranian government is aimed at discriminating against them?

Surely state sovereignty isn't an argument, it all depends on which government protects individual rights better, independent of what its citizens think.

Your characterization of the situation, and the parties involved, is plain false.

In reality the Ukrainian opposition behind the Orange Revolution and subsequent resistance, is mostly democratic and liberal.

Meanwhile Russia and pro-Russian elements have been using electoral fraud, assassinations (including the poisoning of opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko), political imprisonment and finally the open, deliberate shooting murder of protesters in the streets, to suppress the opposition (murders that Putin's propaganda machine has been attempting to cover up ever since, making him an accomplice).

When all those efforts to circumvent freedom and democracy in the Ukraine failed, Putin finally used the Russian military to take over an economically and strategically significant area of Ukraine under false pretenses.

Edited by Nicky

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Meanwhile Russia and pro-Russian elements have been using electoral fraud, assassinations (including the poisoning of opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko), political imprisonment and finally the open, deliberate shooting murder of protesters in the streets, to suppress the opposition (murders that Putin's propaganda machine has been attempting to cover up ever since, making him an accomplice).

Evidence please.

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