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Everything posted by Rearden_Steel

  1. - China has both SA-10s and SA-20s. - We have no fighter/bomber bases in Iraq or Afghanistan. - There is no “Moth balled “ NIMITZ class carriers. The parts they take from older classes are overhead lights, desk, shelves, and minor equipment of lesser importance. They also use them for test platforms and occasionally blow them up (Like the USS AMERICA) - We need Carriers in the Gulf; they are still vital to our operations in the Middle East. A carrier in the Gulf could respond faster in both Iraq and Afghanistan then an air force base could. That’s way there is always a carrier in the Gulf even today. If it were unnecessary they would not be there.
  2. I’m afraid you’re mistaken the SA-20 has been in service in Russia for many years. As stated in the Annual Report to Congress: The Military Power of the Peoples Republic of China 2005(http://russia.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/us/2005/d20050719china.html); in August 2004, China received the final shipment from Russia of four S-300PMU-1/SA-20 battalions. China has also agreed to purchase follow-on S-300PMU-2, the first battalion of which is expected to arrive in 2006. Although we do have bases in Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates it would still take several hours of flight and an air-air refueling to reach Teheran. We would lose the tactical advantage of having a carrier in the gulf. Pulse lets not forget the North Koreans. Its also true that we have mothballed carriers but they are mostly for test and spare parts. I don’t think we will have the 2 or so years to rebuild a Vietnam era carrier. I thought about this too. What if we gave Taiwan a boomer? What would be the Chinese response? It would definitely make China think twice about attacking Taiwan, but least we forget China has a boomer as well. Not to mention nuclear weapons, I don’t think we'd risk nuclear war with China.
  3. Taiwan has a limited amount of PAC-3 missiles, far fewer then China's potential to produce LACMs. Not to mention that China also has the SA-20 which could shoot down the PAC-3There are several ways China could take Taiwan with out having a full-scale invasion. One of the more diplomatic ways is to politically isolate them. The number of countries recognizing Taiwan as a free and independent nation is small. Chinese president Hu Jintao has been racking up his frequent flyer miles as of late by traveling all over the world pressuring countries to recognize the “One China Policy”. In the first five months of this year Taiwan's imports from China stood at US$7.93 billion, representing growth of 29.1% and a share of 10.7% of the country's total imports. If China continue to isolate Taiwan diplomatically and financially it would be easier for them to persuade Taiwan to the “One China Policy”. China could also run a blockade on Taiwan. The Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) would easily overpower the Taiwanese navy. Taiwan’s only hope would be for foreign intervention. The US could and should intervene if there was a blockade of Taiwan, but to what extend? Currently the USN would win a naval battle with the PLAN but at a cost of men and equipment. Also, China most likely won’t run a blockade on Taiwan tomorrow. No, the Chinese are if anything patient. They will continue with there massive upgrade and build up of the PLAN and it’s missile forces. The US FY04 Report to Congress on PRC Military Power(http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/d20040528PRC.pdf) suggests that China is spending much more on its military than it is actually admitting. If the current trend continues the success against the PLAN would not be guaranteed in a naval scenario. The real question is would the US risk losing a carrier and other assets over Taiwan? During a time when our forces are stretched more and more due to Iraq and the war on terror, could we afford such a loss and still intervene with North Korea and Iran? Would the American public stand for massive losses that a confrontation with China would produce, over an island most of them could not even locate on a map. If you read the US FY04 Report to Congress on PRC Military Power report you will note that congress and the US military seem to be concerned about some of the same things.
  4. China possesses the world’s third largest armored force, with 10,000 main battle tanks, light tanks, and amphibious tanks in its inventory. PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) operates about 500~600 SRBMs, most of which are believed to be based in Nanjing Military Region opposite Taiwan. While the size of the force is likely to increase substantially over the next few years, the accuracy and lethality of the force also are expected to increase through use of satellite-aided guidance systems. The PLA is also developing land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs). These cruise missiles seem to have a relatively high development priority to ensure that Chinese forces will have greater conventional firepower. China also has several nuclear powered submarines. Pluse several 4th generation Russian fighter/bombers. In the last 10 years china has made huge strides in military advancement. They are advancing in all fronts in military technology. It would be a mistake to under estimate their force as the large clumsy, unsophisticated force that they were in the eighties. Iraq’s military during the gulf war was nowhere near the level of the Peoples Liberation Army is today. I don’t mean to be the PLA cheerleader, but I would like people to realize the upcoming potential of the PLA. It’s a serious threat that should not be ignored nor bushed off as an ineffectual force. To do so would be dangerous and careless.
  5. I agree, I doubt they could get the numbers they would need across the straight. That’s not what I was stating though. I said, I didn’t think we could get them off the island if they did manage to get there. Some day soon they might. What makes you think that Taiwan’s military is better trained and equipped?
  6. AEGIS can detect the missiles the Chinese have but only under cretin conditions. Plus even "if" (and that’s a big if) we did detect the missiles our counter measures are not that great. AEGIS is old, and the Chinese by now most likely know how to operate around it. Plus the Chinese have more missiles to fire then we have to defend ourselves with. If China fired 15 missiles from different areas we probably would counter some, but many would end up hitting the carrier.
  7. I think you’re over estimating our military and underestimating the Chinese. I seriously doubt we would be able to remove China from Taiwan. Our only hope would be to stop them in the process. The problem is that the attack would probably come suddenly and swiftly there would be no time for us to align our forces in time to intervene. We might have one carrier in the area but the Chinese would easily sink it. I seriously doubt we would be able to remove hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers from Taiwan. If we stopped trading with them it would most likely hurt us a lot more than it would them. They are the largest market in the world and produce a lot more high-evolved products in the US than I think you realize.
  8. Sorry, I wrote this at the beginning of the forum. I don’t know how it ended up here. I don’t mean to sound like Mr. Johnny Come Lately.
  9. With its economy growing nine percent a year and the US/China trade deficit growing twenty-five percent a year there is no denying China is becoming a force to be reckoned with. Although China has been increasingly embracing capitalism and has opened itself to the international market the Communist party and Hu Jintao show no sign of releasing its grip on the country. Along with its booming economy China has been spending more and more money on its military power, which seems to dramatically improve year after year. With no real regional enemies many wonder what’s this military build up for? China has also been increasing more and more pressure on Taiwan (which China sees as a rouge state) threatening to enforce its “One China Policy” with coercion. Will China turn to capitalism and western ideas? Or will its red leaders continue to use force to implement its policies? I would love to hear what everyone thinks.
  10. Yea, I thought I heard they are not together anymore. They've crumbled like the Soviet Union.
  11. I just wanted to mention two of the most despicable bands in the US today: "System of A Down" and "Rage Against the Machine". Both bands are wildly popular with the youth and promote Multiculturalism, Environmentalism, and Socialism. These bands that proclaim that capitalism, industry and western culture are evil and scream out lyrics like “Science has failed our world”. What bothers me most is a lot of people like the music and all the flash and they adopt these ideas as their own.
  12. I saw that episode too, although I saw it in a different angle. The way I saw it Lorelei refused to quite the competition on the grounds that it would be immoral for her to give up just so another could win, Rory was just aligning that idea with the philosophy portrayed by Howard Roark. I took it just as a cleaver comparison; it never even occurred to me that they might be portraying Roark’s character negatively. I doubt that they would seeing that it would be out of character for them to do so; however, I could be wrong and I will have to give it a second look.
  13. I would agree with you about Dawson's Creek and Buffy, but the Gilmore Girls are not the usual WB program.
  14. Has anyone ever seen the Gilmore Girls? I know it sounds like a show for teenage girls, but you would be surprised how smart and witty it is. They make numerous references to Ayn Rand and unlike most TV shows they put her in a positive light. In one episode one of the main character strongly recommends that they read The Fountain Head. There are also several references to Howard Roark and other characters out of Ayn Rand’s novels. The dialog is quick, lively and very sharp. Everyone I introduce to the show start out skeptical but end up devoted to it.
  15. By explore I meant that its a possibility because its a common tactic used by Islamic terrorist. Using historical trend analysis I wouldn't discredit the possibility.
  16. I wouldn't say I have intuitive knowledge, but I would explore the possibility that this is the case. In Israel its common practice among terrorist organizations to have delivery boys or unwitting accomplices to deliver “packages” that are set to explode during delivery.
  17. I hope stronger ties between India and the US do develop. There needs to be a balance of power with the Chinese in the Pacific. India is the only country capable of doing this. Also, India is and will be a valuable trade partner.
  18. "erodes Christianity in the soul" Yea right! Knowing now what I know about the Catholic parsonage I wouldn’t trust a young boy like Harry Potter to be alone with the Pope
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