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Experiments Show Shuttle Gouge Unlikely to Be Danger

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I found this interesting in light of our recent discussions on certainty. Since their simulations show the gouge is unlikely to pose a danger to the shuttle on re-entry, should they patch it anyway just to be safe?
What I read is that the temperatures inside the gouge are unlikely to become dangerous. However, if there are other unseen weaknesses in the foam where the aerodynamic pressures could tear open the gouge wider, that could substantially change things (invalidating the conclusion which was based on the "gouge now" fact). The conclusion was based on using a simplified shape of the gouge in the computer model, and as I understand it (like, not well at all) the simplification would reduce the magnitude of turbulent airflow (and we know that turbulent airflow sucks).

I would conclude that safety is not certain even for the engineers, that there are nameable non-silly alternatives.

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They also used very precise, computer-milled full scale replicas of the damaged area in an arc-jet reentry simulator and directly measured the heating. They showed the process on NASA TV, which I watch regularly during missions. It's a pretty nifty process.

I expect that there will be some decision as to whether or not to do a repair (which would, at this point, likely be the "goo" repair) to come at this evenings mission status briefing, which will be broadcast from JSC at 6:00pm CDT. You can watch here, or if you're lucky, your satellite or cable provider might carry it.

-Q

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