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Global temperatures to drop slightly this year

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Grant
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I'd like to point out that global warming historically has been a very, very good thing for the human race. Global cooling, like the mini ice age of the 13th century on the other hand has always meant bad news.

I'd love to see the day when winter is relegated to 4 months of the year up here.

Did I mention that it snowed yesterday. :(:(

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I'd like to point out that global warming historically has been a very, very good thing for the human race. Global cooling, like the mini ice age of the 13th century on the other hand has always meant bad news.

No kidding! In geological time we are living in what's called an "interglacial" period, ie a time of warmth in between the present Earth's natural state as several degrees cooler. Your Great Lakes are the depressions gouged-out by and filled with the melted remnants of the last glaciers that came that far south. Within the next few thousand years that colder state and the glaciers are going to come back, and when it does all of Canada, Europe, Russia, and northern China will be under a mile of ice or more. The advancing glaciers will come as far south as New York, grinding the city into pieces before pushing the rubble into the Atlantic. Then it will stay covered in thick ice for tens or even hundreds of thousands of years.

Civilisation began right when the last cold period ended, and as you point out has waxed and waned to some degree in line with subsidiary periods of warmth and coolness. The real fear has always been cooling, and if we are not prepared for the nasty inevitable then our civilisation may end when the next cold period starts.

I am optimistic. Our descendents will survive, and do well enough to prosper. By then I imagine they'd even be in space big-time, and perhaps able to do something about the cold (though I doubt that much). In the meantime we have our own lives to lead. "Global warming" is a worthless crock, intended only to stop us from living our lives. Let's not let it.

JJM

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Here's a picture taken from my London apartment on the morning of this April 6th:

Nice day for mid-Spring :rolleyes:

I think you need to buy a 4x4 and start turning on some more appliances. That goes for the rest of you as well! ;)

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Here's a picture taken from my London apartment on the morning of this April 6th:

Egad! You guys turned out too many lights and now are moving dangerously, perilously close to an ice age. Polar bear populations are going to increase to scary levels. Quick, turn the lights back on! before it's too late!

Humans can't do anything right!

Maximus wrote:

I'm doing my part to increase my carbon footprint by driving a truck with a 5.7 litre V-8.

Good man! Hope others can join in the cause.

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National emergency! Have they closed the M6?

I didn't listen to the traffic news yesterday, but today (24 hrs after all the snow has melted!) British Airways is blaming the chaos at Heathrow Terminal 5 on yesterday's weather. (There has been a chaos at that terminal ever since it opened--I guess when it reaches 70°F in the summer, they'll blame it on the "severe heat.") <_<

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  • 3 weeks later...
Civilisation began right when the last cold period ended, and as you point out has waxed and waned to some degree in line with subsidiary periods of warmth and coolness. The real fear has always been cooling, and if we are not prepared for the nasty inevitable then our civilisation may end when the next cold period starts.

Uh-oh.

We cannot really know, but my guess is that the odds are at least 50-50 that we will see significant cooling rather than warming in coming decades.

The probability that we are witnessing the onset of a real ice age is much less, perhaps one in 500, but not totally negligible.

All those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead.

It will be difficult for people to face the truth when their reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation may be at stake.

JJM

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Here are some quotes from a Newsweek article:

There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production

[...]

the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down [...] the trend will reduce agricultural productivity

[...]

And a study released last month by two NOAA scientists notes that the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3%

[...]

Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin points out that the Earth’s average temperature during the great Ice Ages was only about seven degrees lower than during its warmest eras – and that the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age average. Others regard the cooling as a reversion to the “little ice age” conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900 – years when the Thames used to freeze so solidly that Londoners roasted oxen on the ice and when iceboats sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New York City.

According to the article's author, the regions that could suffer the most are places are India and Pakistan, as well as Canada and the U.S.S.R.

It was written in 1975.

The most educative paragraph is the last one:

Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.

I would beware of any self-styled "AGW skeptic" that makes apocalyptic cooling predictions based on a few slivers of evidence. Any such prediction, no matter whether the hockey sticks it involves face up or down, can be used to justify extensive government action, taxation, and controls. The "ice age in n years" crowd may just be trying to beat Al Gore at his own game.

---

See also: http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04...-solar-minimum/

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But here's a great business idea: Why not sell carbon credits to people concerned about global warming, and carbon debits to those worried about the next ice age? All you need to do is set the prices so that the credits exactly cancel out the debits, and then rake in all the money! :P

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