Prediction Thread For The Next 4 years

[Akosiwa]

Okay, so now that Obama(The antithesis to you objectivists) will more than likely become the 44th President what do you think will happen the next 4 years? Predict whether the economy plummets, or recovers, what happens in the war in Irag, Obama's approval rating, Healthcare etc.

Think of it as a fun little game. If I'm alive in 4 years I'll make sure to bring this topic back up...

Edited November 5, 2008 by Akosiwa

[brian0918]

Democrats gain the religious vote through their "One Planet Under God" platform.

[Steve D'Ippolito]

Socialized medicine.

Gun Control.

More radical Muslim activity in the US, and it will be tolerated.

Higher taxes

If there is any sort of terrorist attack our response will be totally feckless (probably issue warrants for arrest).

[aequalsa]

I don't know that this can be predicted exactly. Inflation and juggling could very well hold off the pain for awhile. Generally speaking, probably the things passed will follow the same course that income tax did. So little effect that it barely registers at first. Years later, it is responsible for taking nearly every discretionary penny of income that the average person gets. The only difference is that this time they already have most of it, so they will have to start clamoring for the non discretionary stuff.

Same for health care. Fewer small businesses will start up because full insurance will be required. To say nothing of an increase in the minimum wage. Increasing size of black market labor will probably result. More unemployment.

More and more kids through "voluntary" service organizations for a decade or so should further "liberalize" the populace. They'll start to make Mammon look like Barry Goldwater. This will ultimately allow bigger changes and more devastation, but that will be our children's problem. I'm sure they'll thank us.

Less and less guns. No problems there unless they start trying to get the ones already owned. Offsets for that like the government offering to buy them from people are usually effective.

Edit: I should add that initially I suspect hings will be better. Probably a stock market surge of indeterminate length that he and socialism will get credit for. Also, he is a person, more or less, and that means his emphasis could change at any time.

Edited November 5, 2008 by aequalsa

[softwareNerd]

Okay, so now that Obama(The antithesis to you objectivists) will more than likely become the 44th President what do you think will happen the next 4 years?

You should be aware that McCain is not an Objectivist, that most Objectivists think he is an absolute disaster, that even the Objectivists who voted for him mostly dislike him, and that Objectivists who vote for the GOP more often than not think the GOP is a disaster. Also, be aware that some Objectivists voted for Obama, as I did.

Predict whether the economy plummets, or recovers,...

This would be a fool's errand. The recent shock that the economy faced has been decades in the making. With a few tiny changes, the markets could just as easily have fallen out 6 months earlier than they did, or 6 months later... in the term of another President. If Obama goes back on most of his extreme campaign promises, and instead tries to keep the deficit from blowing out of control, the main economic metrics over the next four years could be good in relative terms. It depends of whether he dumps the bulk of the crap he promised. Often, when one becomes "the man", one feels responsible, and replaces one's hot-headed activist notions with more centrist, adult ones. Who is able to predict how much he will back-pedal?

The question really boils down to: predict whether the Democratic Congress and Obama will run things far left of center or stay only slightly left of center, just like the good old GOP. If they don't veer too far to the left, there's no good reason to suppose the economy will see an impact within 4 years. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised in Obama calls for a pause on changes that affect the budget, and instead pushes for changes that are more structural -- things like card-check. The impact of structural changes like that can take decades.

If Obama is overly-conscious of his left-leaning image and dumps his more left-wing friends and manages to the center, he can run a government that does just fine. Who can predict if he will go back on his platform and his rhetoric, and to what extent? Even if he wants to run more centrist, will he be able to control some people in Congress?

In the end, politician say they will do all sorts of crazy stuff, and then don't; politicians lie and human beings have volition. So, it's not easy to predict what they will do.

Instead of this, if he spends all he promised, on health care; and, if he taxes all he said he would tax; and if he pushes card-check; and, if he imposes strict carbon-cap rules; and, if he pushes the Fed to inflate to "help jobs" etc.;... then, it's hard to see how the economy can do anything but go listless.

What will Obama do? Today, even Obama probably cannot predict that reliably.

[Jake_Ellison]

Democrats gain the religious vote through their "One Planet Under God" platform.

I disagree. Look at Colorado: the only reason the republicans lost that state was because they were trying to pass a right to life ammendment there that declared a fetus to be a person. I think almost all the independents, the people who decide elections in America, voted against people who wanted to impose religious values on them, for what they see as the lesser danger. (that and Palin's incompetence in general have cost McCain key states)

Do you really think Nevada went to Obama because they want more religion and taxes in government?