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Swine Flu, Round 2

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After the pathetic "outbreak" of H1N1 last spring, the Presidential Committee on Science and Technology have made a new prediction for this spring... 2 million people will be infected and 90,00 to 30,000 will die

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2009-0...u-vaccine_N.htm

Obviously a pathetic estimate, at best, which will more than likely be proved false... yet again.

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2 million? it seems a tad bit... Gigantic. but getting past that, the fatality rate being put at 4.5% to 3%? in the Spring they had originally put it at epidemic rating, with a predicted 7% fatality rate. The reality... with a mortality rate of less than 1% and less than 200,000 cases, I think that the number's a fair bit too high.

Is it a problem? sure, just like any other disease. Does it call for such a freak out again? I think not.

In the prime last year, my entire school was covered with anti-flu stuff, we had at least two school meetings about the importance of washing hands, meanwhile, the number of confirmed cases in Minnesota was... 5. I just fell that people are overreacting to this normal level virus.

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2 million? it seems a tad bit... Gigantic. but getting past that, the fatality rate being put at 4.5% to 3%?
"Gigantic" would be appropriate in describing the H1N1 pandemic of 1918-19, which killed between 20 million and 100 million people and infected over a billion people. How many people do you think normally get the flu and how many die in an ordinary year?
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That was H1N1? I thought it was a new hybrid strain.

I think it was that one. It was just the first time in a long time that it came by, and now most people are much more resistant to it so it doesn't hurt people as much any more. Especially because it happened right after the war, it hit many underfed people, soldiers in fairly miserable conditions who were shipped elsewhere (which probably helped spread it), and general lack of immunity. I think that was the main reason older people didn't die as much, because I think the flu strain was similar to one that hit in like 1880ish, so they had some exposure to it.

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A completely new bug is usually more dangerous because it isn't well adapted to us yet. Evolutionarily a bug gains nothing by killing its host, and may gain much by coexisting with it. Therefore infectious agents tend to become less deadly as they adapt to a host.

Also as opposed to 1918-19 we are in better overall health, which makes us better able to resist infections. We have vaccines, we have hand-sanitizing gel, disinfectant sprays, we even have antiviral drugs now. And lastly we ahve a better understanding of epidemiology than they did back then.

Speaking of which, it is hard to hear a dog that ins't barking. A little panic during the early stages of an outbreak can end it quickly. If people limit their contact with each other, that deprives the virus of hosts to infect. SO wash your hands ofte, keep from scratching or rubbing your eyes and nose, pay attention to the symptoms, get a vaccine if you can, and don't worry too much about it.

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Also as opposed to 1918-19 we are in better overall health, which makes us better able to resist infections. We have vaccines, we have hand-sanitizing gel, disinfectant sprays, we even have antiviral drugs now. And lastly we ahve a better understanding of epidemiology than they did back then.
A final fact is that the 1918-19 virus appears to have induced a cytokine storm, which essentially means that healthier (typically, younger) people die because your immune system gets stuck in a loop.
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  • 1 month later...

I am much more concerned about the swine flu vaccine than catching the virus. I feel that I have to warn the Objectivist community as the mainstream media are not reporting how dangerous it is.

Please look up theflucase.com, Jane Burgermeister's website detailing Baxter's contamination of swine flu vaccine with bird flu virus. According to the website the World Health Organisation has declared a global pandemic emergency, making it a crime to refuse a WHO mandated vaccine.

Freedom lovers unite against the powers that be and their deadly toxic vaccine.

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  • 2 weeks later...

A limited supply of the vaccine has just arrived at my university health center. It is being provided to students on a first-come first-served basis (with added restrictions based on age).

Does anyone know where to find reliable information on H1N1 risk, and safety of the vaccine? Being an Indian residing in Florida, I was wondering whether my immunity-level would be different than the Americans?

I went through http://theflucase.com/ (listed by the above poster) and found it to be useful but not fully convincing.

Edited by Rockefeller
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I think the risk of getting 2009 H1N1 this year is low, but unless it just dies and and goes away I think just about everyone will get it eventually. With that said, I don't plan on getting the vaccine. One reason is that flu's have rarely made me very sick, and the other is that I hate nasal vaccines.

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There's no rational basis for fearing the flu vaccine. On the other hand there's not much reason to fear the flu, unless you have respiratory problems, are too young to post here, or are pregnant. People die from the flu all the time (a few hundred thousand a year in ordinary years), but they die from pneumonia even more. The state of knowledge on the matter isn't advanced enough that you can be certain that your decision is correct.

I'll probably get the shot simply because of all the diseased people that I'm in contact with, and I can't afford the down time.

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Different strains of influenza result in about 2,000 to 8,000 Canadian deaths a year (Canadian population 2008: 33,300 thousand).

As of Oct 20, 2009 there are 83 deaths reported due to H1N1 flu virus in Canada.

In the process of transmission from person to person this virus gets weaker and weaker. Also, most of the people infected with swine flu recover.

I am not loosing sleep over it.

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In the process of transmission from person to person this virus gets weaker and weaker. Also, most of the people infected with swine flu recover.

Plus there's Tamiflu and other effective medications. And if you live near a hospital, you can get supportive care if you need it.

I am not loosing sleep over it.

Neither am I. I am washing my hands more often and using up gelled alcohol.

The day news broke of the Swine Flu outbreak in Mexico I got flu symptoms and went on to develop a very mild flu. Since I dind't present all the H1N1 symptoms (no temperature, no headache, no muscle aches), I and my doctor condluded, over a phone consultation, I had a regular kind of lu.

But chances might be good I got the Swine Flu™. think about it. If people get a mild form of flu, they won't get worried. They'll just drink more fluids, maybe take a day off if they can, rest more and carry tissues around. They won't think they're dying. They might think so in the middle of an outbreak, but if they went to a doctor or hospital they'd be sent home with aspirin and a box of Kleenes™.

So maybe I've already even had it and it was milder than expected. Maybe. It's really not possible to tell.

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For those trying to stay healthy I can recommend vitamin D3, it's a great flu fighter. I am taking 2000 I/U a day. Also vitamin C or even better fresh fruit and vegetables. Indian food is good because it contains turmeric, Indians consider it a medicine and a spice.

Ayn Rand thought as long and hard as she could about every decision. Please think very hard about whether or not to take any vaccines.

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Does anyone have any evidence there is anything wrong with this vaccine? I'm seeing a lot of what looks like "conspiracy theory" warnings against it, but no one has provided anything of substance that demonstrates something is or could be wrong with having the vaccination.

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Does anyone have any evidence there is anything wrong with this vaccine? I'm seeing a lot of what looks like "conspiracy theory" warnings against it, but no one has provided anything of substance that demonstrates something is or could be wrong with having the vaccination.
I think you're right. Every year people get 3 strains of flu in their vaccine. H1N1 appears to be is just another strain, and I've seen no argument to make me thing it is any different. There too much irrational fear of modern medicine out there.
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