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US Revolution and Future? (POLL)

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determinist

Future of United States  

68 members have voted

  1. 1. Will there be a revolution (United States) within the next 15 years?

    • Beyond a reasonable doubt, I think there will be.
      4
    • Probably.
      3
    • I'm not sure, but if I absolutely had to guess, I'd say yes.
      9
    • I don't have the faintest clue or hint to tend one way or the other.
      10
    • I'm not sure, but if I absolutely had to guess, I'd say no.
      4
    • Probably not.
      13
    • Beyond a reasonable doubt, I think there won't be.
      14
  2. 2. Will the US dollar depreciate so badly that it collapses within the next 15 years?

    • Beyond a reasonable doubt, I think it will.
      8
    • Probably.
      12
    • I'm not sure, but if I absolutely had to guess, I'd say yes.
      14
    • I don't have the faintest clue or hint to tend one way or the other.
      6
    • I'm not sure, but if I absolutely had to guess, I'd say no.
      3
    • Probably not.
      13
    • Beyond a reasonable doubt, I think it won't.
      1


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Define "revolution"; are we talking blood in the streets?

I'm not sure what to think to be honest... I've had grown men whom I'd trust with my life tell me to expect violence within my lifetime (I'm only 22). If you want a realistic depiction of what a "revolution" might be like in America, I suggest researching the situation in Argentina http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_eco...9%E2%80%932002).

I think the dollar is screwed. I'm no economist, but our willingness to print money seems to indicate that as a nation we don't even value our own currency. Why should the rest of the world? We can't even pay our own senior citizens their social security; why should China think we're good for their money?

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CastleBravo is correct -- you need to define "revolution". The current political-economic system in the United States is not medium-term stable. The government has taken on far more obligation than it is capable of satisfying given its current revenue sources. Too many people feel entitled to wealth produced by others, and there are too few people able and willing to produce it. Something has to give, and when it does there will be a radical readjustment of the relationship between the government and the population. That much I can say with confidence. What I don't know is whether that readjustment will be driven from the bottom-up or the top-down, whether it will be 'blood in the streets' violent, or the exact time-frame in which it will occur.

If I had to guess at the exact trigger, I'd go for the entitlement/pension crunch. A lot of baby boomers are nearing retirement age, and when they change from net economic producers to net economic consumers the gap between entitlements and production will crack wide open.

This will likely be a contributing factor to the destruction of the dollar as well. Governments faced with massive budget shortfalls can make up the difference with money obtained in only three ways. They can tax it, borrow it or print it. Borrowed money has to be paid back out of future revenues, and requires lenders who believe in the government's willingness and ability to do so. Borrowing works great as long as you can get away with it, but it just postpones the reckoning. Eventually your debt rises to the point where you can't credibly refinance it, and you wind up like Greece, forced to choose between the 'tax' and 'print' options. Taxation is politically unpopular and, if taken above a certain level will run afoul of the Laffer Curve and become counterproductive, destroying the very production it seeks to exploit. In the end, if the government can not or will not live within its means, it is forced to turn to the printing press, and when that happens the dollar goes bye-bye.

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The fact that I saw a suggestion of the Amero coming to fruition on an objectivist forum makes me cry inside. I wasn't aware Alex Jones had a corner office here.

Alex Jones is an idiot. I think the Amero is a stupid idea, but it has been seriously discussed in the corridors of power.

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That is a strike, not a revolution.

This gets back to the unanswered question: what is a revolution, exactly? Violence isn't a necessary condition -- consider the Glorious Revolution of 1688, or the Orange Revolution in Georgia. Nor is it sufficient -- violence without a change in government is mere rioting. The essence of a revolution is a fundamental change in the nature of the government and its relationship to the governed. A strike is a tactic which can be deployed in pursuit of revolution.

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I'd also ask what is meant by a "collapse" of the dollar?

That's a bit less clear. In the extreme case, a currency 'collapses' when it loses its value as a medium of exchange. A historical example would be the collapse of the Papiermark in Weimar Germany; a contemporary example would be the collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar. When you have a hundred trillion dollar bill in your hand and its most valuable use is as toilet paper, it's a fair bet that something has collapsed.

The collapse of a currency is generally followed by either a de jure or de facto issuance of a replacement currency. (Failing that, people are reduced to barter.) In Weimar Germany there was a de jure replacement, the Rentenmark. I'm not sure about the current state of affairs in Zimbabwe.

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Paper currency can collapsesin a variety of ways. for example, if people will stop taking it then it loses all value as a medium of exchange, so it has collapsed. Also if inflation is high enough to make it worthless, or through a government action called "devaluation."

I've lots of expereince with the latter, as the Mexican government has devalued the currency again and again. In the 80s currency exchange cotrols were instituted, but at least not restricted. So there was a "controlled" rate for the dollar and a free rate. The "controlled dollar" was cheaper, but you had to beg the government, which at the time owned all banks, to sell you any. After the banks were re-privatized (they were nationalized in 82 and sold to private investors in the early 90s), the controls continued, but less obtrusively and with less need.

Then in December 1995 president Ernesto Zedillo's government casually, almost furtively, anounced the limits by which the peso was allowed to "float" (ie lose or gain value) against the dolalr would be widened. This set off a massive devaluation of the peso because the mexican governmetn owed a lot of debt in dollar isntruments internally. Back in 82, along with the nationalization of banks, dollar accoutns were covertly converted to pesos right before a devaluation was anounced (ie the money was stolen). So this time investors wanted their greenbacks right now. You know what happens when demand outstrips supply. It got really ugly.

Long story short, the peso went from around 3.5 pesos per dollar to 10 pesos per dollar. Inflation grew to two figures within a year, and interest rates shot upwards of 90% on loans and mortgages (houses were lost on a semi-massive scale; it kept from becoming truly massive because th market for foreclosed real estate was essentially zero, therefore the banks prefered to renegotiate debt).

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Paper currency can collapse in a variety of ways. for example, if people will stop taking it then it loses all value as a medium of exchange, so it has collapsed. Also if inflation is high enough to make it worthless, or through a government action called "devaluation."

I think the key is that the currency is no longer usable as a medium of exchange, i.e. if you have some of it you can't trade it to anybody else for anything of value. This can happen for a variety of reasons, as you indicate.

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I think the bottom line is that most American citizens will take to the streets over a sporting event before they will over major political/economic action (assuming "revolution"means some sort of drawn out violent period of extreme change). I don't think the average citizen thinks about the weight of anything past their mortgage and what to have for dinner. Why do you think the situation is a dire as it is? Why do you think most people are a walking ball of contradictions? It's because they don't seem to care. They aren't going to care until you start taking food off their plate and once you start talking about catastrophic food shortages in the United States I put on my tinfoil hat.

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I think the bottom line is that most American citizens will take to the streets over a sporting event before they will over major political/economic action (assuming "revolution"means some sort of drawn out violent period of extreme change)... Why do you think the situation is a dire as it is?

You'll note that in my view a revolution need not be violent. It's simply a sudden and fundamental change in the relationship between the government and the governed. There's an old saying that "if something can't go on forever, it won't." The current political-economic structure of the United States government can't go on forever. The revenue/outlay model is just out of proportion, and something has to give. When it does there will be a major change of some kind, which by my standards constitutes a revolution.

Right now the government is borrowing money to paper over the gap in its budget. Watch for signs that the gap is widening and the government's ability to borrow money is decreasing. In that light, I offer this and this as data points for consideration on how dire the situation is.

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  • 2 weeks later...

My guess is that there will be a revolution much like the Bolshevik revolution in Russia.. the political situation will create so much tension in society and the government will continue to appropriate private property until even moderate supporters of the democrats realize what is happening and the majority turns against them, at that point I predict a military occupation of most of America by its own military... this is only a prediction however, and is entirely based on my cynical views about the state of current society.. perhaps things are not truly as bad as I believe

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