Tipping Points and Beliefs – the 10% solution

[Grames]

Interesting article highlighted by a post on Watts Up With That?

Tipping Points and Beliefs – the 10% solution

Minority Rules: Scientists Discover Tipping Point for the Spread of Ideas

Scientists at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have found that when just 10 percent of the population holds an unshakable belief, their belief will always be adopted by the majority of the society. The scientists, who are members of the Social Cognitive Networks Academic Research Center (SCNARC) at Rensselaer, used computational and analytical methods to discover the tipping point where a minority belief becomes the majority opinion. The finding has implications for the study and influence of societal interactions ranging from the spread of innovations to the movement of political ideals.

Tipping Points is also the name of a recent Malcolm Gladwell book which I have (or had, I don't see it lying about just now.) This article appears on the WUWT website because the rise and fall of global warming as accepted conventional wisdom is an example of the operation of tipping points.

I don't know what they have to say about resistance to tipping. What happens when there are more than 10% holding pro and con opinions? What would a society of 10% Objectivists and 10% communists be like over time?

The models used don't say anything about one opinion being right, but in the real world that is a definite factor in being persuasive.

[Eiuol]

What happens when there are more than 10% holding pro and con opinions? What would a society of 10% Objectivists and 10% communists be like over time?

I wonder if that more has to do with the type of idea involved, or how abstract/broad the idea is. Communism and Objectivism have a variety of principles to adopt of course, so there is probably a more complex social mechanism that goes on. Abortion rights may easily fit with "if 10% solidly believe that abortion is a legitimate action, then fence-sitters are considerably more likely to adopt that new idea." For the most part, it rests one one idea: a fetus has no rights. Something as broad as Objectivism might simply not apply to the tipping point phenomena; many principles need to be adopted.

Or perhaps the answer to your question is that a great deal of conflict will occur about which side to pick, resulting in war or revolution in extreme cases, supposing both ideas are at 10% each. Other conflicts would be instances of violence between individuals, even if not all out war.

[Grames]

The simulation used a abstract mathematical model of contentless propagation methods, i.e. peer pressure, appeal to authority, and other forms of "social proof". This can be described as a model of "the unthinking masses". Of course this is not the only way ideas spread, which is how it can be possible to get from 0% to 10% in the first place.

So the conclusion I take from this is, don't worry about the masses. Concentrate on the logically valid and thorough arguments of the issues to reach that 10%.

As far as the big picture goes for the strategy of expanding the influence of Objectivism, I think this study lends support for the "storming the ivory tower" strategy of the ARI. That has to be first.

[Mnrchst]

I reckon most beliefs which start out at around 0% and got to 10% are generally (eventually) adopted by a majority of the population and stay above the 50% level indefinitely, but I can't see how it could be "always". What about the prohibition of alcohol?

[Grames]

I reckon most beliefs which start out at around 0% and got to 10% are generally (eventually) adopted by a majority of the population and stay above the 50% level indefinitely, but I can't see how it could be "always". What about the prohibition of alcohol?

Right, the study did not attempt to cover the interplay of opposing beliefs. "Always" there just means "so long as all conditions remain the same" which rules out studying opposition.

[volco]

History is made by minorities—or, more precisely, history is made by intellectual movements, which are created by minorities. Who belongs to these minorities? Anyone who is able and willing actively to concern himself with intellectual issues. Here, it is not quantity, but quality that counts (the quality—and consistency—of the ideas one is advocating).

- Ayn Rand http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/history.html