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Correction, My earlier figures (for the African continent) were wrong, sorry - 1.2 million is the case number in Africa.

The most recent figures, the deaths total ~ 30,000.

And here's Bill's dire warning for Africa back in Feb: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/15/coronovirus-bill-gates-warns-10-million-deaths-virus-spreads/

The epidemiologists have a useful term for their own inflated predictions: "severity bias". Yeah, that helps a lot, thanks. ;)

Then the WHO and the UN. Original African estimate 3.3 million, later down-rated to 190,000 - and still way off. https://www.npr.org/2020/06/02/868209675/new-who-model-forecasts-a-different-coronavirus-spread-pattern-in-africa

Is this the "expertise" one should trust, or countries base measures on?

Edited by whYNOT
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I'm not so sure I've acted in my self interest raising this issue...  Also, I have misunderstood and/or been negligent in honestly seeking the motivations of Merlin... justice demands an apology

I didn't see a forum where I thought this post fits well. If the moderators want to move it to another forum , that's okay. Anyway, I've been posting to this blog for a while, and believe some would f

I appreciate all the links Merlin makes to his blog entries. They are informative, and convenient for me to go to from here. I don't get to follow up with comments usually, because I'm on other things

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That book is weird, but so is Sullivan's review.

It seems that both of them are somehow stuck thinking that intelligence means IQ. They both miss how the bigger problem is equating grades and test scores with intelligence. Sullivan wants to defend the value of intelligence (and does a bad job at it by the way), but accomplishes that by arguing about school performance and IQ. The book argues about the overvalued of intelligence, but accomplishes that by arguing about school performance and IQ. They both miss the more obvious issue: the tools we used to measure intelligence are a mess and don't measure what we think they measure.

The same reason people want to get into Yale for undergrad. It's not that going to Yale means you are smarter than most people. It's just a way to signal your social standing. 

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