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Russian invasion of Ukraine/Belief of Mainstream Media Narrative

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Nordsteam I and Nordstream 2 gas pipelines in the Baltic have now both been sabotaged.  The most likely perpetrators are the Americans and the Ukrainians.  There is no way in hell the Russians did it, the ability to return to the pre-war gas market as Europe's primary supplier was Russia's major negotiating chip to keep their gains in the Ukraine after things settled.  They could always turn off the flow and had already turned off the flow for demonstration purposes so blowing up their own pipelines reduces Russia's political influence and is contrary to their financial needs and stated policies.

But if the Ukrainians did it, that is just another way to state that the Americans did it.  

Elections have consequences.  

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1 hour ago, Grames said:

Elections have consequences.  

If the consequences of either outcome are bad, it becomes necessary to weigh which outcome's consequences are less bad.  This gets even more complicated if while voting we don't know just what the consequences will be.

 

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When trying to weigh possibilities looking to past actualities presents information to analyze.

Given the title of the thread , the media narrative concerning the US efforts at supporting Ukraine scores Obama being ‘weak ‘ and only sending  ‘blankets’ Whereas Trump was mainly lauded for sending antitank missiles. Looking back though , I don’t remember much news narrative /coverage of NATO’s support or action at the same time . It feels now, that NATO has been active in supply and training the Ukraine military during both administrations. Perhaps the narrative was to keep the public’s eye off the ball with partisan bickering about aid /support  from the ‘US’ wasn’t the actual or most substantial portion of the support received. 

But I just throw shit out , feel free to ignore .

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3 hours ago, Doug Morris said:

If the consequences of either outcome are bad, it becomes necessary to weigh which outcome's consequences are less bad. 

Famine and war versus more mean tweets.   I'd pick the tweets every time.  Trump was the only president in decades to have not started a new war or military intervention.  Of course that was the main reason he had to go.

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51 minutes ago, Grames said:

Famine and war versus more mean tweets.   I'd pick the tweets every time.  Trump was the only president in decades to have not started a new war or military intervention.  Of course that was the main reason he had to go.

Perhaps you don’t realize , but your thesis intimates that ‘we’ are not a democracy which is tantamount to sedition .

Trump ‘went’ because a record 81 million made a wise and sober choice of avoiding another administration in which military action was not likely to increase.

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20 hours ago, Grames said:

Famine and war versus more mean tweets. 

Trump did more bad things than just mean tweets.

20 hours ago, Grames said:

Trump was the only president in decades to have not started a new war or military intervention. 

 To what extent was this due to Trump?  To what extent was it due to restraint applied by his aides, perhaps by making bad orders disappear?  To what extent was it due to luck as to what happened internationally on Trump's watch?

Trump played a risky game canceling the Iran nuclear agreement.  He also cozied up to dictators.

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Ultimately the responsibility for the administration falls to Trump , so it doesn’t make a difference whether he made good decisions or had good decision makers in the administration .

He ‘lucked out’ because not much was happening on his watch , the only administration in history were the US had little or no influence on what happened internationally.

Trump had been making his views on foreign policy and trade fairly public since  the late eighties and has stayed fairly consistent on those views and actually tried to implement some of them , he lucked out in that they seemed to work or at least not cause immediate negative effects.

He just lucked out lol, that TDS sure blunts reasoning.

Edited by tadmjones
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15 hours ago, Doug Morris said:

Trump played a risky game canceling the Iran nuclear agreement.  He also cozied up to dictators.

The risky game was cozying up to Iran by Obama, the EU, et al. A regime which daily makes clear its hostility to the West's freedom, to America and others, is under the Islamist ideology, is belligerently active in foreign countries ... and was/is on its way to creating a nuclear arsenal. "Deal", or no deal. Ingratiating the Iran regime into the international "fold", that was the "sanctioning of evil".

Governments pave the way for crony corporates to move in on Iran's resources and markets.

Compare with the Russian context, a country ¬already¬ possessing a nuke arsenal and displaying no previous hostility to the West, ideologically or otherwise, which once showed signs of desiring accord with Europe but yet being isolated/sanctioned and targeted for overthrow.

Prospects of potentially insane acts by Islamists with nukes terrified westerners into appeasement and diplomacy; Russian leadership, far more realistic and logical and open to negotiation, poses an 'easy' target the West believes they could act tough with. While they arrogantly seem to feel they can reject any diplomacy. With Russia in expected turmoil and political disintegration, the crony corporatists can again do their thing with its resources.

 

 

Edited by whYNOT
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  • 6 months later...

The recent Pentagon intelligence leak is exposing the endless stream of lies that has been the mainstream narrative on the situation in Russia/Ukraine.

"The most significant implication of the documents is simple: Ukraine’s combat power is significantly degraded, and in particular their mechanized units and artillery forces are in very rough shape.

...

"We have known for quite some time that Ukraine is facing a critical shell shortage, but the leaked documents reveal just how acute this issue is. Ukraine’s usage rate is very low right now - the report claims only 1,104 shells had been expended in the previous 24 hours - compare this to the 20,000 or so shells that the Russian army is firing on a daily basis. Even more alarming for Ukraine is the note that they have only 9,788 shells on hand.

...

"One can only conclude that the tail is wagging the dog. The Ukrainians are able to extract material, training, and cash from the west, but there is little accountability or honest information flow in return. There were hints of this earlier in the war - that Ukraine is a sort of black box which sucks in resources but does not communicate honestly in return; American officials have complained (and Ukrainian leaders have confirmed) that Kiev simply does not tell DC all that much. Apparently this remains an issue well over a year into the conflict. One particularly alarming footnote in the leaked documents states:

"We have low confidence in Russian (RUS) And Ukrainian (UKR) attrition rates and inventories because of information gaps, OPSEC and IO efforts, and potential bias in UKR information sharing.

Good grief.

...

"It has long been apparent that the Kiev regime has no real plan, no firm path to victory, and only a tenuous and unfriendly relationship with reality. Far more terrifying is the thought that the Pentagon is much the same.

...

"The entire strategic logic of Ukraine has reversed. Rather than becoming a cheap way to drain the Russian military, NATO finds itself drawing down its own stocks to prop up the hemorrhaging Ukrainian state, with no clear endgame in sight. The proxy has become a parasite.

"There does not seem to be any long term plan to sustain Ukraine’s war. The Pentagon’s procurement plans do not indicate any real intent to ramp up production of key systems. For FY2024, they have ordered a modest 5,016 GMLRS - the missiles launched by the famous HIMARS system. Ukraine has already fired nearly 10,000 GMLRS, making this yet another system where Ukrainian expenditures vastly exceed supply. 

To salvage the situation, Kiev must place its hopes on one desperate dice roll with a mechanized attack package comprised of half-strength brigades wielding a disparate inventory of different vehicles and systems. This Frankenstein’s monster of armies - sewn together with a bevy of different tanks, IFVs, APCs, and artillery systems drawn from all corners of the NATO alliance, will likely be asked to smash through the heavily fortified and robustly manned Russian lines in the south, where it will be pulverized and become only so much more mulch for the Pontic Steppe."

https://open.substack.com/pub/bigserge/p/russo-ukrainian-war-leak-biopsy?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

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1 hour ago, Jon Letendre said:

<...>

This seems to be from a comment/rant on the recent leaks, by a nobody called "Big Serge"...

No direct references to the leaked document themselves...

Besides, this comment unwittingly thrashes the claims that Ukraine is pumped to the brim with Western weapons, including the latest, and that, therefore, it is with US/NATO that Russia is fighting, hence its unexpected difficulties... 😁

(The photo on "Big Serge" page is of Sergius Witte, Prime-minister in the Tsarist Russia in 1905)

Edited by AlexL
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