softwareNerd Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 I was reading about the upcoming German elections. I know we have a few members from Germany and wondered if they would like to give us a picture of political trends in Germany. I'm interested more in the long-term trends than in the near-term fluctuations. My (barely informed) view is that Germany has been drifting downward for a while. I wonder if I'm mistaken, maybe I'm comparing my idea of former West Germany with the current Germany... obviously the numbers can't be compared. What was the impact of unification on the former West Germans? It sounds as though Germany may be at a turning point, where people finally want something done about the welfare system. Is that true? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wrath Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 (edited) I predict that within 50 years, people in Germany will once again be yelling "Sieg Heil!" Edited September 14, 2005 by Moose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schefflera Arboricola Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 I predict that within 50 years, people in Germany will once again be yelling "Sieg Heil!" Well, there are already neo-Nazis (as there are in the United States, too), but I don't think you were referring to the fringe. When you say "people in Germany," it sounds like you mean the majority of Germans. On what are you basing your prediction? --Schefflera Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schefflera Arboricola Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 I was reading about the upcoming German elections. I know we have a few members from Germany... (snippage) Toll! Wo sind sie? --Schefflera Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felix Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 Hier bin ich doch. I said it before and I'll say it again. Germany is going down the tubes. In the long term we will: -have a rise in unemployment -have a rise in public debt -have our productivity lowered -be split into two parts: one saying: we need free markets, the others saying: the rich need to give more, in the end it will be these two groups -have more government controls, because the 'steal from the rich'-group is bigger It may well be that history repeats itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daniel Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 (edited) I think Germany has had its worse time and things will get better, for example unemployment is already going down. Furthermore even if things get worse in the long term they may very well get better with Merkel being elected. People seem to think bad situation = extremists gain power. Of course this has occured before, but it dosen't always occur this way, for example, the UK was in a terrible position in the late 1970s but elected Thatcher. Merkel looks set to be Germany's chancellor and Germany is no where as bad as the UK in the late 1970s. Also nationalism is relatively weak in Germany, there is still alot of shame about starting two world wars (a German friend was opposed to the Iraq war, when I asked why he said 'Germans can't bomb other states') and support for a Federal Europe shows this. Thus i don't think there is any right wing extremist threat. And a left wing threat is also unlikely given the electoral system of Germany and the hatred left parties leaders have for one another. Edited September 14, 2005 by daniel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felix Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 It's true that Germans are not allowed to feel any sort of nationalism. That's not what I mean. I hold the conviction that if you go far enough to the left, you end up at the far out right and the other way around. I don't fear hatred for foreigners. I fear socialism. Half of Germany consists of ex-socialists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daniel Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 It's true that Germans are not allowed to feel any sort of nationalism. That's not what I mean. I hold the conviction that if you go far enough to the left, you end up at the far out right and the other way around. I don't fear hatred for foreigners. I fear socialism. Half of Germany consists of ex-socialists. I also don't think this is anything to fear for the reasons i gave as well - the electoral system and the hatred left wing parties have for one another as well as the abilty of people to support the right in times of hardship and the fact that economically things are getting better. Coupled with other factors such as Germany's membership of the EU thus restrcting how extreme a government can become (70% of our laws are made in Brussels). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capitalism Forever Posted September 14, 2005 Report Share Posted September 14, 2005 Ich kann aber auch Deutsch! It's true that Germans are not allowed to feel any sort of nationalism. The problem is that Germans are in a way required to feel guilt. And we know where that leads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daniel Posted September 15, 2005 Report Share Posted September 15, 2005 Does anyone know what the lastest polls say? How are the Free Democrats doing? I wish they had enough support to form a government of their own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daniel Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 As the results come in it appears to be a sad day for Germany. Germans have not embranced reform to the extent that they should have. It really is amazing to see just under 35 per cent of people supporting a party which has been in power for the past 7 years and after that time 5 million are unempoyed and 40,000 bankruptancies occur a year. I have argued that things looked good for Germany - they did until now. Things were picking up however now what progress that has been made will probably come to no long term effect. I don't understand these Germans who vote for Greens, socialists and communists - to think these people are part of the EU. It simply makes me want to get out of the EU even more! For me the best position now would be for a CDU-Free Democrat coalition with the few extra seats needed being made up of defecting members from the SPD. Though it won't happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felix Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 Looks like we get a grand coalition here. CDU and SPD working together. The FDP (or FDU as it is called on this forum sometimes) reached 10%, which is the highest percentage I have heard of. Most of the votes for the new left came from East Germany. 25% for the new left. Every fourth voted for them. Maybe we truly need the wall back. Those who want socialism can have it there and those who don't want it can flee before we rebuild. Then maybe we would have a working government. As to 'who votes for the Greens', people who believe in 'the good' but lack thinking (like my parents). It's over 8% in Germany. A grand coalition is the worst thing that could have happened. Now we will get nowhere and problems will begin piling up while politicians argue without consent. Does anyone know a place where I can immigrate in a year or so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Nate Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 Does anyone know a place where I can immigrate in a year or so? America welcomes you. I truly am disapointed for your country. I was very hopeful a pro-capitalist coalition would pull through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Nate Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 A good op/ed on the election: http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110007280 The last bit is particularly insightful: The late economist Mancur Olson argued that the downfall of democracy would be its tendency to calcify into special-interest gridlock. Germany's extensive welfare state has created millions of voters who fear the loss of any benefits. Combine that with voters in eastern Germany who cling to outmoded notions of state support and you have an formidable challenge to bring about real reform. "The lesson for America is do not go down the road as far as Germany has," says Horst Schakat, a German who created a series of successful businesses in California for 30 years but retired to his native land in 2001. "You may find yourself unable to go down a different but correct path once too many people have become dependent on the state." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daniel Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 The FDP (or FDU as it is called on this forum sometimes) reached 10%, which is the highest percentage I have heard of. In 1990 they did better with 11% of second votes as opposed to the 9.8% it got this time. Also in 1990 it got 7.8% of first votes and 79 seats. Now they got 4.7% of first votes and 61 seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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