Mathematical Probability

[DavidOdden]

Just one question now: is "combinatorical probability" that you talked about in earlier posts the same as "true probability" (of the population)?

No, combinatorial probability is non-observational -- it's pure combinatorics, i.e. the fact that there is a 16.6% probability of rolling some particular number given a 6-sided die. The "true probability" i.e. propulation probability as well as the sample probability are versions of the frequency sub-concepts of probability.

[DarkWaters]

s "combinatorical probability" that you talked about in earlier posts the same as "true probability" (of the population)?

In mathematics, combinatorial probability refers to the "probability" one infers from a ratio of the following form: the number of elements in a set that have an attribute divided by the cardinality of the set.

I do not think that we have good reason to believe that anything in the universe is inherently random. However, in many cases using a stochastic model to help explain a process is very helpful to enhance our understanding provided that it is a good model.

If I am not mistaken, in the previous posts, it appears that the discussions of two different types of probabilities for genders in a population were with reference to a "bad" model and to a "better" model respectively. The bad model was the one where one assumed five, equally likely genders: male, female, hermaphrodite and two other things. The "true probability" would be with reference to a "better" model that more accurately reflects the gender of a baby presently being born. Please note that the "true probability" of let's say a baby being male is not necessarily equivalent to the number of males presently living in a society divided by the total number of people presently living in a society. I hope that this helped to answer your question.

Edited April 17, 2007 by DarkWaters