AIG should be bankrupt, and those contracts should be automatically scrapped. But, as long as the government insists on bailing out AIG, they aren’t bankrupt, so the empoyees are entitled to their contracts. A contract is a contract. Unless there’s a clause that says government intervention renders the contracts null and void, I can’t see a way out of 'em. I voted yes.
I hear this a lot. I’m not sure I’m convinced AIG is really the bad guy that it’s being made out to be. I think that, based on what I know thus far, the problem wouldn’t really be as much of a problem if:
- The Government didn’t essentially influence the mandatory use of mark to market accounting standards through the FASB - which is just another quasi Government agency funded through regulations set forth in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act which altered the Securities Exchange Act of '33 to provide for this.
While I don’t think there is anything inherently wrong with this accounting method, it the market should determine if it’s appropriate for the business involved. For example, this type of accounting does cause a unique problem for insurance companies and banks whose assets are typically long-term and their current market value at any given point (which really can’t be determined until or unless the assets are sold) is going to be different (sometimes radically so) from what their assets will be upon maturity. This can have a crushing effect on these types of businesses if the economy slows down or goes through a contraction.
When AIG takes a hit on some speculative investments and they have to value those assets coupled with their long-term holdings according to mark to market accounting standards, then you run into a situation where their overall assets don’t look very valuable or as valuable.
- The Government didn’t impose legal reserve limits
The Government requires banks and insurance companies to have a “legal reserve”. The legal reserve for an insurance company though is MUCH MUCH higher than for a bank. If the company’s legal reserve drops below a certain point, then the company is deemed to be “in trouble” and must raise capital to meet their reserve requirements. If they don’t, they can be downgraded by rating agencies and this of course creates a lot of problems. They can also be put out of business and deemed insolvent.
When you force a company that is long-term by nature to be short term in its valuations (via mark to market accounting) and you force that company to cough up cash immediately if they drop below certain reserve limits that are calculated using this accounting method, then of course you are going to have trouble. The company won’t be able to sell their blocks of money in the kind of economic environment we have - which was caused by artificially low interest rates - which they need to do to replenish their capital reserve. So, they get a “loan” from the Government. Now they are having to sell off blocks of money to pay back the Government. Same essential problem, but now you have taxpayors footing the bill. And NOW, you have outrage over bonuses being paid.
But is any of this really the company’s fault? The speculation plays that AIG made may have been inappropriate. I’m not sure they would actually be bankrupt if this were a free market. Their subsidiary company - AIG financial products - probably would be. But their core business would be quite strong. In reality they have a strong cash position. However, according to the Government’s arbitrary legal reserve requirements, the whole thing should be bankrupt.
Now, if there is a scare that AIG will indeed go bankrupt, that could prompt policy holders to either cash in their policies or borrow as much as they can from them, effectively creating a “run” on the insurance company. The theory is that this would have a domino effect on the rest of the industry. AIG and others would have to liquidate their holdings to meet the requests of their policy holders.
Because insurance companies are the largest buyers of corporate debt, it is thought that this would have a “freeze” effect on the bond markets. Since, savings is the real stimulus to an economy, you might see things get MUCH worse.
I think it is a pretty good scare tactic, although this could be the lesson insurance companies need to stop selling universal life-type policies (which is a whole 'nuther discussion) and move towards a whole life product line which doesn’t treat cash values as a quasi demand deposit account. Of course, the company could put a moratorium on policy loans and surrenders if it is in their contract.
Of course, all of this would be seen as “unfair” by policy holders and we’d need more Government intervention to “stop the atrocities”.
What about the fact that the Government caused this whole thing to begin with. 