It is very similar to a ponzi scheme,
A Ponzi scheme is similar to a pyramid scheme. The scammer pays out old investors with the money from new investors (and takes a cut for himself). It “works” as long as new “investors” keep coming in. When inevitably not enough new “investors” can be found, the thing collapses.
The difference bewteen the two is the pyramid scheme does not pretend to invest the money, while the Ponzi scheme does.
As you point out:
since it pretends to take money from people now, keep it in a fictitious “trust fund” and pay it out later, while actually paying the money out right away. Not only is current money given to retirees, but the little that is left over is spent on general government expenditures.
That’s the exact definition of a Ponzi scheme, including the cut for the con artist (in this case the US Federal Government).
And since population growth has slowed down (as always happens with prosperity), there aren’t enough new “investors” to keep paying off the older “investors.”
America does have a sort of canary, though: Europe. In Europe population growth has slowed even more, in some cases even reversing altogether (that is, the population decreases). Some countries make up for it by allowing large numbers of immigrants in, but that too is unsustainable. Add the permanently high unemployment rate and the generous unemployment and/or welfare benefits paid out, and Europe will collapse long before America does.
That should serve as an object lesson and, perhaps, allow America to rid itself of the Social Security scam before it is too late.
Unravelling Medicare is much more difficult. The government has created an extremely costly health-care system, and most retired folk would have a real problem paying private rates in the system. We need to get the government out of health-care in general, in order to make this transition.
That is a much more difficult problem, and you’re right about the solution.
A modest but necessary first step is for people to accept that insurance can’t, and should not, cover everything. This kind of all inclusive coverage makes for higher costs and higher consumption rates. Not that people willingly will want to visit their doctors more, but that it does provide incentives for doctors to order every test they can think of, which the patient won’t refuse beacuse his insurance pays anyway.