I seriously question anyone’s ability to distinguish “90% certainty of success” from “99% certainty of success” – only Leonard Nimoy qua Spock could compute probabilities of success that finely. I guess I can say that my life has never been at risk, though I’ve been at risk of seriously falling on my butt a number of times. So I have no idea how to decide is there is a 1% chance of dying, vs. a 10% chance. Maybe in combat situations experienced soldiers can make such a computation – in the case you propose, that isn’t a meaningful distinction. What matters is whether you know that you will die for the sake of a stranger (irrespective of whether you are wrong about the outcome).
This idea, of being able to determine the probability of dying (or risk), is interesting and important and now it has me thinking so I will relate a story and then some ideas for further discussion.
When I was 14 I was riding horses daily and had just been offered an opportunity to exercise a new arrival to our stables a couple of days a week. I arranged to take a “test drive” as soon as possible. Looking back, I know that at this point I had already made a few mistakes that I would pay for later 1) I did not ask my trainer if she thought the horse would be a suitable match for my skills 2) I didn’t get much information from the owner about the horse’s mannerisms, difficulty, style etc.
After riding at a grueling pace in the arena for about 30 minutes I was elated at my ability to manage this animal, pushing the limits of my skills and strength. We had been working on the flat (not doing any jumps yet) and so the owner set up a small, low course of fences for me to take him over. However, as I approached the set of jumps I noticed a change in the attitude of my steed. No longer were the movements elongated and calm - his head was up, his ears were laid back flat and I could see, based on familiar body languge of the animal, that it was not happy with what I wanted it to do. I disregarded the signs are indications that I was making mistakes that were irritating an animal accustomed to more talented riders and adjusted my position and aggressiveness in a manner that I believed would help. I took approached the line of fences a second time but the horse’s response was the same. I was irritated, and began to consider the idea that the horse might have been quite spoiled and unaccustomed to working this hard. If I was going to ride this animal on a regular basis it would have to get used to taking the jumps, and so I pushed onward and over the jumps.
By the last of the three fences I was struggling to stay on the horse as it bucked and cavorted wildly around wildly; hell-bent on getting me off it’s back. I had been in all sorts of emergency situations like this in my 10 years of riding so I remained calm and evaluated a number of factors including 1) whether or not I could make a safe (not fatal) landing if I choose to let myself fall off 2) If it was worth it to stay on (long term - if I would get to ride this horse again) 3) if I knew how to calm the horse down and fix the problem. As the situation escalated I decided getting over the horses back was a must (if I horse rears too high it can willingly fall over backwards in an attempt to crush the rider on its back) so I began scouting the options and decided the soft sand of the open arena - away from any fences or jumps or other impediments - was a good target. I was slammed into the ground and I was very upset with myself because, despite my careful planning, I ended up breaking my collarbone and wearing a back brace the first 6 weeks of high school. However the conclusions I came to were that 1) I wasn’t dead and that was most important 2) the horse wasn’t worth riding and 3) I had mis-evaluated my skills.
That was a longer story than I set out to write but I added all the detail to show the reader that there was a great deal of evidence in reality that I disregarded even thought there was a great deal of thinking going on. It’s the same when evaluating anything for risk; if you don’t take a long hard look at reality you get into trouble – but what about in the cases of emergencies, where there simply is not time for deliberation? If you saw a child screaming for help and drowning would you simply run and jump into the lake after it, within seconds of encountering the situation? How does one go about deciding that quickly?
I’m going to use my own story of the horse emergency as an allegory for some questions about emergencies, which might illuminate some things about the ethics of emergency situations. I’m not familiar with much on emergency ethics so this formulation is mine and I am happy to accept criticisms based in facts and validated by logic - which is what I have attempted to do.
These are my questions:
- When the option is either life or death what are the essential considerations one must have before they can decisively act? How does an emergency alter a person’s hierarchy of values? Should it alter that hierarchy?
For example: In the case of an emergency, is it true that one must consider basic needs for man’s life before one can consider higher needs (such as spiritual needs)?
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In an emergency time is generally limited when it comes to decision making, so how is range-of-the-moment thinking to be avoid (especially in situations such as mine where there were only a few seconds of consideration about whether or not to fall off the horse)?
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In response to the previous question, doesn’t long-range planning and thinking greatly reduce the impact of emergency situations?
For example: If I had thought long-term and collected more information about that horse I would have had the proper expectations and been prepared to deal with the situation (maybe I would have worn a protective vest or something).
All the arguments that have been made to me, in the case of emergency ethics, focus on pragamatism. That is, they throw long-term thinking and values out the window and instead attempt to argue that either one should - in the case of the drowning child example - either hold the child as an instrinsic value and risk life and limb to save it or disregard the child out of hand because even a 1% chance of injury and/or death is too high to warrant saving another human being struggling to conquer nature.
I am not sure that either of these options can be right. I would enjoy your thoughts on this.
Best,
-Elle