Over the next thirty years (beginning around 2005), the baby-boom generation will start retiring in huge numbers, the rate of which will not decrease until around 2035. At this time (2004), around 12% of the population is 65 yrs old or older; by 2035, that percentage will have risen to 21%. This will have been the most dramatic rise of in the senior (and retired) population in US history. To support them through the current social security system, we the current and future workers will be taxed so heavily that many of us will be driven into poverty, and the general living standards will plummet.
At the same time, our national debt is soaring (currently $37 trillion, 65% of which was added in the 1990’s), creating a temporary, artifical prosperity that threatens our future just as the enormous credit expansion of 1920’s brought about the Great Depression. We are likely to face a more severe and prolonged depression in the near future, at around the same time the baby-boom generation will retire.
Government size has steadily grown much faster than the economy. Now, nearly half (43%) of all spending is by government, not even including the cost of regulatory compliance (14%). Government spending on national security and defense has shrunk by a more than half from 1990 to 2000, and had been on a general decline since the 1950’s. Meanwhile, government spending on social programs have soared (59% of government budget). All this has been accompanied by a tremendous increase in the power of the government, and more violations of individual rights.
From 1970’s to the present there has been general trend of decreasing labor productivity growth and economic growth, a stagnation if not decline in real wages and living standards, (not to mention education standards). Energy consumption has grown and continuous to grow while environmental regulations prevent Americans from producing more energy to consume from oil reserves and nuclear power plants.
Terrorism is threatening our security while the government commits little to national security; It is hardly succeeding in its global war on terror and its war in Iraq, no thanks to the inconsistent, unprincipled, apologetic and appeasing foreign policy of our President (which tragically may be the best we can expect). Furthermore, our ability to adapt economically to face challanges such as those met by the US in WWII has declined significantly with growth the government, the immense size of which has actually weakened our ability to defend ourselves from external threats.
Very soon we will meet a series of major crises (depression, terrorism, tyranny and poverty)–some of which we are already going through the first stages; and there hasn’t been any substatial action taken to alleviate their effects if not avoid them altogether. There is no sign that the general trends of decline will reverse themselves anytime soon.
I know that reason and capitalism are making a comeback in academia; but will it be fast enough to avoid the coming crisis? Will the American people take action before it is too late? It seems almost too late, now. The task of the New Intellectuals in the face of all this is almost impossible.
Atlas may shrug soon, after all. ![]()
You can verify all these bleak stastics in greater detail here http://mwhodges.home.att.net/