Don’t count out Michelle Bachmann, I think she will surprise us all in Iowa and beyond. She is my second choice for President.
Rick Perry thinks “faith made America strong”.
That’s okay - that Rick Perry (“pointy boots” as one local (Austin, Texas) talk-show host calls him) and many many others think believe that Christian faith made America strong. All we need is to have competing protection agencies and the incentives will be in place to ensure the recognition and respect for rights. We could have a Christian protection agency, an Islamic (Sharia) protection agency, a Libertarian protection agency, and even an Objectivist, among others, protection agency, all competing in the market for rights and freedom.
That’s okay - that Rick Perry (“pointy boots” as one local (Austin, Texas) talk-show host calls him) and many many others think believe that Christian faith made America strong. All we need is to have competing protection agencies and the incentives will be in place to ensure the recognition and respect for rights. We could have a Christian protection agency, an Islamic (Sharia) protection agency, a Libertarian protection agency, and even an Objectivist, among others, protection agency, all competing in the market for rights and freedom.
Does Lord God Tarskyte get one too? Smite all unbelievers!!
Ayn Rand admired founding fathers who were not Objectivists. Ayn Rand has endorsed several Republicans for president. Not a single one of them was an Objectivist. While Ayn Rand was upset with the Libertarian Party, she was friends with prominent libertarians who advocated the Austrian school of economics. For example, Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard wrote these letters to Ayn Rand.
http://mises.org/jou…21_4/21_4_3.pdf
According to the Wikipedia entry for “Ayn Rand,” Henry Hazlitt and his wife were personal friends of Ayn.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayn_Rand
Ron Paul knew Murray Rothbard well. According to Ron Paul’s Wikipedia entry, it was actually Austrian economics that motivated Ron to enter politics and he credits Ayn Rand as one of his big influences.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul
Ron Paul seems very honest. He fervently spoke out against the TSA, voted against the PATRIOT Act, and (unlike Romney/Gingrich) wants smaller government. While I am not an Objectivist, I read a few books by Ayn Rand and can not possibly imagine her ideas aligning with any present Republican candidate more than Ron Paul. Gary Johnson (who I like) said he looks at everything as a cost-benefit analysis (i.e. which does not match the theme of morality being a means to an end as much as Ron Paul). Ron does not entirely align with her perspectives on foreign policy, but on the other hand, I bet Rand would be completely terrified if she saw the TSA today. I think she would know Ron Paul is not a power-hungry demagogue like Romney and Gingrich and Paul stood up as an individual against the collective many times (like Howard Roark).
And sorry to RP fans, I would not be surprised if Gingrich sank but I think Romney’s odds are a bit better than Ron Paul’s.
…but I think Romney’s odds are a bit better than Ron Paul’s.
In the primaries, Romney has significantly better odds than Paul. In a general election, Ron Paul stands zero chance of beating Obama.
In a general election, Ron Paul stands zero chance of beating Obama.
According to the recent Gallup poll, Ron Paul is polling just about neck-to-neck with Obama.
http://www.gallup.co…hmann-paul.aspx
Ron Paul has very steadily increased his support since his last campaign. RP is an internet favorite and individuals are increasingly influenced by the internet. He can get many votes from independents in a general election.
The primary election is interesting. Ron Paul is in 3rd in national polls, including the Gallup poll.
http://www.gallup.co…l/election.aspx
Here is a screenshot of the image at the time of this post.
Both candidates (Gingrich and Romney) who are above Ron Paul in national polls are substantially higher than Ron in those polls. However, prior to Newt, 3 people (Bachmann, Perry, and Cain) rose and sank. And now, (unsurprisingly) it appears that throughout the past 1+ week(s) Newt Gingrich’s “surge” has been a downward trajectory (according to the trend in the Gallup graph above). Ron Paul has a lot more campaign money than Newt (and he is now using quite a bit to air ads challenging Newt):
http://www.opensecre…hp?id=N00005906
http://www.opensecre…hp?id=N00008333
So, to say the very least, the idea of Gingrich staying at the top is seriously questionable.
Romney has been more steady than the candidates who surged and sank. He also has quite a bit more campaign money than Ron Paul. However, Romney is roughly tied with Ron Paul in the first state that will be voting in the primary election: Iowa. I do not know if Ron Paul will win Iowa, but if he does, he just might be the #1 focus on mainstream news and surge. My guess is that Ron will not win the primary election, but I bet his odds are nowhere nearly as low as most people believe.
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According to the recent Gallup poll, Ron Paul is polling just about neck-to-neck with Obama. http://www.gallup.co…hmann-paul.aspx
Ironically, that same article has all the evidence to suggest that the numbers from August polls have zero relationship to actual outcomes. Not sure why they still do them.
I think a better way to predict at this stage it to extrapolate how Obama and GOP-candidate-X will play during the presidential debate, and how this might impact two audiences:
- people who may actually vote for either party
- people who may not vote
These people really matter most in the so-called “swing” states. So, for instance, even if there is a 5% swing away from Obama in New York state (with those number showing up on national polls) it is not relevant, because that’s still too little to win those states.
Obama will tailor his message to the person he faces. With Paul or Bachmann, I think it would be relatively easy for Obama to run a negative campaign, scaring “independents” about a far-right shift. Meanwhile, neither of those will be able to counter with a positive, inspirational message. I will bet that in a campaign of scare tactics, the known devil will come out winner.
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the known devil will come out winner.
I’m totally disgusted by Obama. Things that he’s so far said and done lead me to believe that he’s a complete socialist and opposed to individual liberty, as such. I think between the massive debt he’s created, the mandated purchase of health care, and the decimation of our oil industry(amongst other things) no president has done as much damage to this country since FDR(Gingrich’s favorite president, btw, because of his "progressive policies). That said, I can’t in any way bring myself to believe that Gingrich or Romney would be any better. All 3 are insiders with no regard for anything that I hold dear. To the extent that they say anything otherwise it’s pretty clear that they’re lying. That Paul is doing so well tells me that there’s a significant percentage who feel the same. This “Two” party system is a total fraud and I don’t intend to support it with the pretense of my involvement in the process.
If Paul runs, I’ll vote for him, otherwise I’m going to write in Gary Johnson.
Obama will tailor his message to the person he faces. With Paul or Bachmann, I think it would be relatively easy for Obama to run a negative campaign, scaring “independents” about a far-right shift. Meanwhile, neither of those will be able to counter with a positive, inspirational message. I will bet that in a campaign of scare tactics, the known devil will come out winner.
If Ron Paul and Gary Johnson lose, it makes virtually no difference to me whether or not Obama beats Romney. The only difference between Romney and Obama is the particular array of policies that violate my individual rights.
If Paul runs, I’ll vote for him, otherwise I’m going to write in Gary Johnson.
Ditto!
I’m disturbed by how much support RP gets from the left.
I’m disturbed by how much support RP gets from the left.
Depending on your own convictions, you might see Ron Paul in different ways. One person may see him as standing somewhere on the “freedom end” of a statist/freedom axis. However, others may not look at him that way. Someone who thinks the government has a role to play and who thinks that folk like Obama simply favor a different set of corporate backers might see Paul as somewhere on the “anti-establishment end” of an establishment/anti-establishment axis.
The enthusiastic commie (we might call him naive) thinks he is fighting for the individual little guy. So, he shares that with the anti-statist libertarian. Historically, we’ve often seen co-mingling between commie types, anarchists and libertarian at the grass-roots level.
He seems to get a lot more support for the flaws in his foreign policy than he does for his advocacy of capitalism and limited government. I’m really on the fence about him.
I really admire his commitment to rational economics, but it scares me that his supporters eat up everything he says and package the bad with the good.
Someone who thinks the government has a role to play and who thinks that folk like Obama simply favor a different set of corporate backers might see Paul as somewhere on the “anti-establishment end” of an establishment/anti-establishment axis.
When I rely on a primary source of information (Ayn Rand’s actual writings), Ron Paul appears that he would be very favorable to Ayn when compared with any other candidate. He preaches individualism, stood against the majority in opposing the TSA, wants to end the entire Department of Education, wants to end minimum wage altogether, disagrees with conscription, opposed the PATRIOT Act, did not vote for TARP, is not an anarchist, wants more tax cuts than anyone else, and is not a gigantic demagogue. When I talk to secondary sources, they seem to fabricate a model of Ayn Rand that would oppose Ron because of his foreign policy. I don’t buy it. As modest as I am about understanding Ayn Rand, it seems crystal clear to me that Ron is very close with respect to her preferred policies, and while he not an Objectivist who bows down to her every idea, no candidate that Ayn ever endorsed was.
I really admire his commitment to rational economics
That is actually what scares me about Ayn Rand and Ron Paul.
Gary Johnson is running as a libertarian presidential candidate now. He and Paul were far and away my favorites, and both have been victims of a soft campaign to ignore them in the media.
I would vote for a bowl or soggy rice crispies over Obama, even Perry and Bachman are better than that socialist, but Paul or Gary Johnson would be my preference.
Assuming Johnson gets the LP nomination, I won’t be voting “None of the Above” this year. Finally!