This is a thread to speculate or predict the winner of the election. Don’t go on about who you want to win, just who do you think will, given the circumstances of the election. Also, how do you think it’s going to happen?
For instance, I think McCain is going to win, but by a more narrow margin.
Why?
Because Bush won in landslide last time. Although the Democrats took the house, the people who vote in the congressional elections are not all the same for who votes in the presidental elections. To the extent of my knowledge, more vote for President. The people who carried Bush into the White House again in '04 will carry McCain there in '08. Some of those voters were swing voters who are now voting for the Democrats instead, but there are also a large number of people switching parties.
An X factor here is the large number of black people voting for Obama, that normally don’t vote. That’s if they actually vote, and that’s a big *if*.
Again, it’s a pretty big coin toss. The prediction markets are putting Obama ahead. I think that says a lot. But, I think there are a large number of people who vote Republican who don’t paricipate in polls and information gathering that people use to make this decision.
I was 100% sure McCain was going to get it. Now I’m only 60% after the last few weeks.
The 2004 election was 286 Bush / 251 Kerry. How is that a “landslide”?
Apparently I’ve been lied to. Honestly, at my highschool after the election they (the faculty) told us it was 300/200. And people in the media kepy saying landslide over and over again. It kind of stuck.
But, there are these two maps which give a good impression as well,
Maybe I was thinking landslide in States? 31 vs 19 is a landslide.
Maybe I was thinking landslide in States? 31 vs 19 is a landslide.
Finally, what matters is electoral voters, which reflect population. Check out “US Political Atlas” for tons of data. If you scroll down on this page, you’ll see a map like the one you showed, but it also has the number of electoral college seats for each state. Looking at those numbers, one sees the following: if every state that voted Democrat in 2005 votes Democrat this time, and a single mid-size state with 18 seats of up switches from GOP to DEM, the Dems will win. As an example, that means, if either Florida or Ohio switch, and all else remains unchanged, the DEMs will win. Of course, states can switch either way, complicating the calculation. If you register on that web-site, it will let you predict shifts state by state (starting with 2004 as a base), and you will end up with a personalized prediction-map for 2008.
Mammon, number of counties or number of states is irrelevant. Both those maps play a numbers game to fool you into distorting the reality. All those red states in the middle of the country have many many millions fewer people than the people living in those blue states. Corn fields don’t have voting rights yet, though I am sure they will if Obama gets elected so he can appease the vegetarian voting base.
Obama will almost certainly win. McCain has gotten some votes because of Joe the Plumber, but not enough to make up the difference. The fiscal conservatives have mostly abandoned him because of his support of the bailout, and Obama has gotten much of the rural vote, which McCain would need to win. Sarah Palin got some votes for him initially, but now that the shock of him picking a woman has worn off, people are actually looking at her insane positions.
Here’s all you guys need to know. I live in College Station, the reddest red area you can think of. Yes, we have a university, but this is quite literally deep in the heart of Texas and I think the vote went something like 90%+ to Bush in this area in 2004. Riding around on my bike through all the neighborhoods around here, I see more Obama/Biden signs on the lawns than McCain/Palin, even on some businesses. Yes, there are some “Beat the Hell Outta Obama” shirts around campus, but very few. Down here in Texas, the winds are turning blue.
Of course, I voted in NH, so I won’t be part of the swing this year.
Why do I think Obama will win? Because all polls say he’ll win, obviously. That’s why we all think he will win. You are the only one who seems to think that all the polls in this country are wrong, and McCain is ahead.
There you go: I think my previous post was far more constructive than this one though, since all I did here was state some obvious facts (you seem to be ignoring).
Honestly I do not know. If the media and vague polls have anything to say, likely Obama. In actuality I’m not so sure. I think there’s a good chance for another total mess when you factor in e-voting machines that have been favoring Republicans, and ACORN fraud that has been registering voters likely in favor of Obama. I think election night will be wild and weird.
This is a first: I agree with Mammon about something related to politics! I think McCain will win by a narrow margin, just like (well, this is how far the agreement lasted) Bush did in '04.
All of the current polling indicates Obama will win. I also think the Democrats will pick up quite a few seats in the House and should have a fillibuster proof majority in the Senate. Now we’ll all get to see what Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have in store for America.
Tomorrow the Ultimate Indicator happens – My highschool’s Mock Election. We’ve never been wrong about who is going to President.
My confidence in McCain winning has definitely lowered after seeing the evidence you guys have put forth and recent events in the news. But tomorrow will tell for sure.
Obama will win because McCain has shown poor selection skills. Joe Biden was a good choice of vice president. Sarah Palin was a bad choice of vice president.
Swing voters who don’t know which one is less bad will tend to look at the choice of vice president as an indicator of good judgment in the president.
Obama will win because McCain has shown poor selection skills. Joe Biden was a good choice of vice president. Sarah Palin was a bad choice of vice president.
Is that a joke? Have we been watching the same campaign? I’m not saying that Palin is a good choice, but, you actually think Biden was??
Besides that amazing statement of yours, do you really think people are voting for Obama because of Biden?
You throw these one-liners out as if they were self-evident, without a scrap of reasoning behind them. Well, they are self evident – self evidently ludicrous.
