The Value of Colonizing Mars

Ethics
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15 minutes ago, StrictlyLogical said:

The sun’s radiation is statistically typified by its specific nature, size, composition, temperature, etc. limiting the highest energy of the particles it can emit and limiting the probability of those med-high energy particles that it can emit

Other objects and events (some quite exotic) in the galaxy are far larger, more energetic, etc, so those particles are of much higher energy.

Recall photons are quanta of energy, so each photon from a weak gamma ray signal is still a gamma ray photon… just as energetic as any other gamma ray photon.

So a giant, galactic star’s radiation will hit us with more energy than the sun’s, despite having to travel a longer distance, because traveling through space doesn’t reduce its energy very much?

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17 minutes ago, MisterSwig said:

So a giant, galactic star’s radiation will hit us with more energy than the sun’s, despite having to travel a longer distance, because traveling through space doesn’t reduce its energy very much?

I think the GCR is typified or at least described in terms of high energy nuclei, rather than photons… heavy ions… travelling at incredibly high speeds, almost the speed of light.

Space itself does not impart any drag on a free ion travelling near the speed of light, although a stray atom in space might collide with it.  

https://www.nasa.gov/analogs/nsrl/why-space-radiation-matters

 

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3 hours ago, StrictlyLogical said:

So really true freedom comes again… when… in a few millenia?  Perhaps never…

When Ayn Rand’s ideas are widely enough understood and accepted that they dominate public discussion.

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13 hours ago, Harrison Danneskjold said:

I don’t see a great deal of rational value in reaching Mars at this point; we’ll all be long dead before any kind of industrial civilization is possible there.

 

13 hours ago, Harrison Danneskjold said:

MMMH.  I’m sure I’ll have a word for that attitude by tomorrow morning.  In the meantime let me state my extreme disagreement, and that I think ANY great thinker (not just Ayn Rand but ANY of the greats of the last few centuries) would’ve found it equally repugnant.

I still don’t have a fully worked out argument about the value of planting trees whose shade we’ll never live to sit under. I disagree that there’s no profits to be made in space, even today; even purely financial profits (as opposed to spiritual or intellectual ones) - but let’s say that was the case.

Was it worthwhile to plant an American flag on the moon? Never mind that it was a government program; let’s just think about the act, itself.

 

It didn’t generate any revenue, sure. But it was certainly an achievement. It was a concrete demonstration of what mankind can do when we put our collective minds to it; something akin to climbing a mountain, on an individual level.

 

In the long run we will all be dead (as Keynes observed before Fred Kinnen). So what?

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11 hours ago, Doug Morris said:

If workers commute daily from orbit to the Martian surface and back and wear protective pressure suits the whole time they’re down there, we won’t need habitats on Mats at all.

I don’t imagine the day-to-day operations of such heavy industry will require an actual human presence. There will always be unforseen events which require the occasional repairman, but otherwise whatever cannot be fully automated can be done by remote control.

Such repairmen might need to live on the surface or commute from orbit, however; that’s true. It just wouldn’t be a daily commute.

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10 hours ago, MisterSwig said:

Otherwise its mere existence will threaten life on Earth.

That’s a bit much. It certainly won’t be easy, but if the first Martian colony fails I don’t see how it could take life on Earth down with it.

10 hours ago, MisterSwig said:

The problem with comparing the colonization of America with Mars is that America was not essentially different from Europe. European explorers had many excellent reasons to expect good things from the new land. Earthlings, however, know that Mars is essentially a barren wasteland. A Mars colony would be an unprecedented drain on Earth’s resources. Mars must become self-sustaining very quickly.

Firstly, I don’t think they’re that dissimilar. The American colonies had to become self-sufficient pretty quickly as well, were a drain on their mother country until then (except for the Aztec gold which made it cool to colonize) and many of them actually did fail; killing plenty of colonists. They didn’t have to worry about oxygen production (that is a big difference) but that doesn’t mean they didn’t have to produce, nor that it’s an essentially different kind of endeavor.

 

That being said, yes, it will be very difficult. It’ll be risky and incredibly expensive for whoever ends up funding it.

So was putting an American flag on the moon.

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There’s an anecdote I read once in a book by Robert Zubrin. I’m very unlikely to still have all the details down precisely because it’s been a decade since I read it. I really should brush up on it before posting but I do need to sleep at some point; please feel free to help me check these facts in the morning. But the underlying gist of it has never left my brain in the past decade.

 

Also, when I speak of what “The Chinese” think or do I am, of course, referring to their dominant philosophy at that time. It’s just shorthand for cultural trends.

 

The gist of it is that China very nearly became the first colonial superpower a century before any European had conceived of such a possibility. There was this massive expedition they launched, consisting of thousands of ships (essentially a floating metropolis) which explored almost the entire coast of Africa and may have even visited North America (maybe?).

And they weren’t just exploring. The Chinese have always said that their Emperor is really the Emperor of the whole world. He may allow other rulers to act like they have countries of their own, now and then (mostly out of a sense of pity) but at the end of the day he is the one true King of the world. And this expedition was explaining this to all the exciting new peoples they met throughout the rest of the world.

“Hello! Yes; that’s a lovely facial - piercing? It’s a very stylish whatever-that-is. Our glorious Emperor thinks you might’ve forgotten that He is your one true regent, and since it was an honest misunderstanding He is going to forgive ALL of your back taxes! I know; He’s wonderful. Anyway, we’d best be going, but we’ll be back around next year’s tax season!”

And when this fleet finally turned around to head back to China its admiral fully expected to return to all the lands he’d explored to make their inhabitants into proper Chinese subjects. Only the old Emperor had died while the expedition was gone and the new Emperor didn’t care for expensive sea voyages; He liked orgies and giant golden statues of Himself. China fell into a period of stagnation and decline, and not long afterwards was totally humiliated in the Opium Wars by those European superpowers who had valued exploration over orgies.

America, just like China at that point in time, pulled together many years ago and created a similar expedition to plant an American flag on the moon. The question is whether the meaning of that flag matters more to us than orgies.

 

Life is motion. Cultures and civilizations which cease to expand cannot simply sit idly; they decline and fall.

And the expanding offshoots which are a civilization’s colonies are not just representative of its average mentality; they are self-selecting from the best of the best. The British citizens who lacked the skills or the courage to become colonists simply stayed home; what ended up in America were those who were tough and independent enough to succeed in that environment.

“They do not live their lives ‘by your leave’; they hack it out of the wilderness with their own two hands, bearing their children along the way!”

 

I want to live there. I will give my dominant hand to be a member of any extraterrestrial colony, at any time, regardless of what becomes of me afterwards. I guess that’s my bias in this conversation, stated as succinctly as I can in under two hours.

I’ll have more to say next sol.

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11 hours ago, Harrison Danneskjold said:

22 hours ago, MisterSwig said:

Otherwise its mere existence will threaten life on Earth.

That’s a bit much. It certainly won’t be easy, but if the first Martian colony fails I don’t see how it could take life on Earth down with it.

To clarify, I don’t mean all of life on Earth would suffer. I mean that to the extent resources from Earth are transferred to the Mars colony, those are resources unavailable for supporting life on Earth. It might not be the most important concern, but some thought should be given to the propriety of sending Earth’s valuable materials on a potentially one-way journey to Mars.

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34 minutes ago, MisterSwig said:

To clarify, I don’t mean all of life on Earth would suffer. I mean that to the extent resources from Earth are transferred to the Mars colony, those are resources unavailable for supporting life on Earth. It might not be the most important concern, but some thought should be given to the propriety of sending Earth’s valuable materials on a potentially one-way journey to Mars.

Not to quibble for the sake of quibbling, but you do see the arguments both for and against are here based on collectivist morales? “life on Earth” “Earth’s valuable..”

“Hey Hank, I’ll trade you Dagny for that metal”

“Um ok deal, If you don’t mind , what do you plan to do with it?”

 

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10 hours ago, Harrison Danneskjold said:

I really should brush up on it before posting but I do need to sleep at some point; please feel free to help me check these facts in the morning.

Yeah so the Chinese admiral mentioned was named Zheng He and apparently the discontinuation of his voyages was also related to the Great Wall. They pulled the funding from exploration in order to fund a big, beautiful border wall - and were promptly bent over and spanked by the Portuguese.

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On 10/19/2021 at 10:58 AM, Boydstun said:

Leaving aside such a world-wide prohibition, I anyway don’t think at all likely that outer space locations can be colonized such that a colony can become viable independently of earth, parallel the independence Paine urged as viable for the colonies here.

In what time frame? If you mean that there won’t be an independent Martian state in the next ten or twenty years, certainly, I’d agree. In the next century though?

One hundred years ago there were no such things as computers and most people found the concept of space travel as laughable as that of allowing women to vote. In a hundred more years - who knows?

Every technological advancement which makes life on Earth easier will also make life in space more viable.

On 10/19/2021 at 1:06 PM, StrictlyLogical said:

Now, or very soon, there literally is no where to go

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1Sq1Nr58hM

 

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On 10/19/2021 at 4:16 AM, Harrison Danneskjold said:

Oh, like how?  Like dealing with the alleged climate crisis?  Like dealing with the possibility of sapient AI (even though it’s not something most normal people are worried about yet)?  Like lowering the cost of launching mass into orbit to a point where it might be feasible for a regular person, or like creating countless high-paying jobs in the process?

I really don’t know if Elon Musk has ever read a word of Ayn Rand’s before, and frankly it doesn’t matter; he is the closest thing to a living, breathing Hank Rearden as has existed in this century.  And if you truly do have a pro-human mindset fully integrated into your self then you owe that man more respect than you’d give any other person alive today, including both you and I!

 

If you care about human life, and all which makes it possible (let alone worth living) then you owe him an apology for that statement alone.

I’d be more enthused if Musk worked on something like Galt’s motor, Rearden Metal, or life extension technology; something that would enable I and my contemporaries to lead better lives. Of course, he owes me nothing, and I respect his right to work on whatever project he wants.

Is Musk’s goal of reaching Mars analogous to Columbus’ activities? The latter wanted to discover better routes for commerce, to make money. I don’t want to constrain a genius like Musk with my own small mind, but I don’t see that he’s Columbus. Is Mars a rational value? Is he going to turn it into a profitable enterprise in his lifetime? Are humans suited to flourish there? Is civilization so irrational that man needs a new planet now that all the good continents are taken? I don’t have the answers to these questions. 

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12 hours ago, happiness said:

Is civilization so irrational that man needs a new planet now that all the good continents are taken?

To my mind, this is the most compelling argument for off Earth colonization.

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On 10/20/2021 at 4:43 PM, Harrison Danneskjold said:

In what time frame? If you mean that there won’t be an independent Martian state in the next ten or twenty years, certainly, I’d agree. In the next century though?

One hundred years ago there were no such things as computers and most people found the concept of space travel as laughable as that of allowing women to vote. In a hundred more years - who knows?

Every technological advancement which makes life on Earth easier will also make life in space more viable.

Harrison, in connection with your last sentence, I wanted to mention a point that Eugene Parker included in his SCI AM article of 2006 raising awareness of the enormous challenge of radiation shielding of humans in outer space travel, and that is that eventually we could come to have advances in medicine such that we can fortify the body internally against cancer and treat outbreaks of cancer so effectively and efficiently that the cancer issue is overcome. That is something possible, from what I know about cancer and the slow (think the film "Dark Victory’ - 1939) progress we’ve made in curing it, that might be accomplished in one or two hundred years.

However, even were the radiation challenge overcome, I just find it implausible that the Earth’s moon or the planet Mars could ever—not even in a thousand years—be made so amenable as the human life I enjoy this autumn morning on our acreage, gigantic harvest meanwhile going on in the Midwest . . . . nor a Moon or Mars colony so self-sustainable that life could continue there were the earth destroyed by, say, being struck by an enormous meteor (think the film “Melancholia”). In the 1950’s when my brother and I were children, we imagined things of the future (influence in part from comics books) such as a communication wrist watch or a Buck Rogers type of defense against the growing threat of Soviet ballistic missiles, that have come about in at least approximate ways. But there are other things, especially advances in power technology, that have not come about to the revolutionary degree imagined and not for lack of trying. I find science fiction films entertaining sometimes, in the evening, when we are going to be watching one or another film entertainment anyway. But much in them is contrary to well-evidenced deep truths: No, there will not be flourishing economies in which there is no money in the works of it (Startrek). No, there will be no profound changing to human nature for the better in the space-colony that would not be also a potential for humanity on earth. No, there will be no “terraforming” of a barren Mars with evolution speeded up as in a film. No, there will be no “beam me up” nor transport of matter through vacuum at greater than velocity of light nor voyaging through a Black Hole to get someplace.

At one of my grandfather’s funeral many years ago, they played his favorite hymn. His father had homesteaded. When my grandfather began farming, it was with mules. The work was very harsh. He succeeded, bought tractor and threshing machine, raised a large family, and increased his holdings. That hymn is titled “Heaven Is My Home.” Earth is my only home, and really, his too.

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On 10/25/2021 at 7:37 PM, happiness said:

I’d be more enthused if Musk worked on something like Galt’s motor, Rearden Metal, or life extension technology; something that would enable I and my contemporaries to lead better lives.

Would you like the option of cybernetically augmenting your brain to perform superhuman mental feats? That’s what one of his companies (Neuralink) is working on; last I checked they’d successfully put computer chips into a pig’s brain and taken them out again (and wirelessly interfaced with the pig’s brain through them) and might be on to human trials in a few more years. How’s your internet connection? He has another company attempting to get high-speed broadband to every square inch of the globe. Personally, if I ever get the chance I will be moving to Mars and getting that implant.

One can argue about whether we will ever see any of these lofty goals achieved. Maybe they will; maybe they won’t. They’re still great goals to have.

 

And even if you don’t want a brain implant (just to take one example) - you can’t imagine that living in a society where many people do have it won’t benefit you indirectly, just as you benefit indirectly from the ubiquity of internet access (and will gain still further benefits if he manages to make such internet access cheaper, more reliable and more ubiquitous). If I augment my brain and you don’t, you can still ask me to perform complex calculations (&etc) for you.*

 

On 10/25/2021 at 7:37 PM, happiness said:

Is Mars a rational value? Is he going to turn it into a profitable enterprise in his lifetime? Are humans suited to flourish there?

No; we’re not suited to thrive there (nor in much-more-likely orbital habitats). We’ll have to turn it into a suitable place for us (not the other way around) and that’s gonna be a long and dangerous struggle. Furthermore it’s certain to be very expensive for some period of time, until its infrastructure is developed enough for some degree of self-sufficiency.

 

Profitable, though? That would depend on what sort of profit we’re talking about.

I want to live there, hardships and dangers and all, because it would be an adventure. Adventures don’t pay the bills, true enough, but they’re one of the things that make the struggle of life worth living.

 

Quote

Is civilization so irrational that man needs a new planet now that all the good continents are taken?

We haven’t done much with Antarctica yet (and it might make sense to develop that before Mars) but we do seem to be getting there.

 

Is there any anatomical difference between males and females? Is 3.5 trillion dollars equal to zero? Is it okay for a sitting president to ignore the results of a democratic election if he doesn’t like them?

Things are getting far too Looney Toons around here for my liking.

 

*Results may vary depending on how mischievous I’m feeling. :wink:

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On 10/25/2021 at 7:37 PM, happiness said:

Is civilization so irrational that man needs a new planet now that all the good continents are taken?

 

2 hours ago, Harrison Danneskjold said:

Is there any anatomical difference between males and females? Is 3.5 trillion dollars equal to zero? Is it okay for a sitting president to ignore the results of a democratic election if he doesn’t like them?

Things are getting far too Looney Toons around here for my liking.

On second thought that’s quite the understatement.

 

In the past year my own government has violated my right to work. I have been prevented, by force, from earning my own living by my own effort, on the flimsy pretext of protecting me (as a thirty year old man in decent shape) from what would be a mild sniffle. During this same period in which WORK was OUTLAWED violent riots, arson and highway robbery were allowed to run rampant throughout this country and cheered on by public intellectuals across the world.

Now my own government is using my taxes to crack down on “misinformation” - meaning that my private thoughts inside of my own brain are their business to regulate (for my own health and safety, of course).

 

I will take the hazards of life in space over that kind of hazard any day of the week! At least radiation and micrometeors would not expect me to thank them for my own immolation.

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On 10/26/2021 at 9:56 AM, Boydstun said:

However, even were the radiation challenge overcome, I just find it implausible that the Earth’s moon or the planet Mars could ever—not even in a thousand years—be made so amenable as the human life I enjoy this autumn morning on our acreage, gigantic harvest meanwhile going on in the Midwest . . . . nor a Moon or Mars colony so self-sustainable that life could continue there were the earth destroyed by, say, being struck by an enormous meteor (think the film “Melancholia”).

When discussing such radical and long-range possibilities as this I (like Elon Musk) find it much more useful to reason from known principles than what does or does not sound plausible.

Will we ever have truly faster-than-light travel? No; according to our current understanding of physics that is impossible and not worth mentioning outside of fiction. Will Mars ever have its own proper magnetosphere? If a magnetosphere is caused by the motion of internal molten metals (which Mars appears to lack) then probably not; certainly not in the next thousand years or so. Maybe in a thousand years we will have ways of injecting such moving lava into Mars (PERHAPS) but as for our own moon that is out of the question. Can human beings survive on Mars? Certainly, if we send them with adequate food, water and oxygen (and especially if they have the means to produce these in situ, as we already know how to do) then they can live there.

Granted, whether or not one could ever enjoy an autumn sunset on Mars as we do on Earth is debatable (not on any time frame; whether or not such atmospheric conditions could ever be created is debatable). However, if it isn’t then Mars would have its own sort of seasons and its own sort of Autumn, which I would like to experience.

On 10/26/2021 at 9:56 AM, Boydstun said:

But there are other things, especially advances in power technology, that have not come about to the revolutionary degree imagined and not for lack of trying.

Especially in power technology? The track record of artificial intelligence is much worse. We thought we’d have basically-sentient-machines many decades ago and we’re currently still trying to teach them how to drive. However, even in cases where real technology has utterly failed to live up to the dreams of sci-fi authors, this does not equate to the stagnation of such technologies. We may not hit  the targets we’ve set and yet this doesn’t mean we’re hitting nothing at all.

I assume you’re familiar with AlphaGo; the AI which beat the best human Go player on Earth several years ago? Well since then there’s been AlphaStar (a StarCraft-playing-AI) which also went on to beat the best human players on Earth in an incredibly hectic and fast-paced real time strategy game.

Just because our actual progress doesn’t live up to our expectations for it (and sometimes embarrassingly so) does not mean that no progress at all is being made.

On 10/26/2021 at 9:56 AM, Boydstun said:

But much in them is contrary to well-evidenced deep truths: No, there will not be flourishing economies in which there is no money in the works of it (Startrek). No, there will be no profound changing to human nature for the better in the space-colony that would not be also a potential for humanity on earth. No, there will be no “terraforming” of a barren Mars with evolution speeded up as in a film. No, there will be no “beam me up” nor transport of matter through vacuum at greater than velocity of light nor voyaging through a Black Hole to get someplace.

Oh, yes, there will never be a society without money; not even a communist one. That certainly is true. There will never be any truly faster-than-light travel or travel through black holes, either.

It’s interesting you mention Star Trek, though, because there are other aspects of that show (besides the Communist sympathies) which actually do stand up to proper scientific scrutiny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmQsrXLofMY

Have you heard of the Alcubierre Drive?

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On 10/19/2021 at 1:06 PM, StrictlyLogical said:

I know will never see the day where I or my son, or my ancestors live in a truly free society… I will be taxed, redistributed, and redtaped into submission every day of my finite life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wof\_mvcB0YA

 

“You can’t take the sky from me”

Damn straight. That’s one of the things nobody can take from you without your consent.

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