merjet
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Posts posted by merjet
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"Put all your eggs in the one basket and --WATCH THAT BASKET." - Pudd'nHead Wilson's Calendar. By Mark Twain/Samuel Clemens.
Mr. Twain was a wise man, except financially. (He lost a huge sum of money on a printing press.) I watch my speculative investing closely.
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I believe the days of spectacular gains from Bitcoin are over. After Bitcoin reaches its maximum number of coins, other crypto currencies will experience greater demand. This has already happened. Who wants to link one's debt or other obligations to a currency that rapidly appreciates?
2 hours ago, whYNOT said:But you wouldn't speculate with the dollar! You want your cash holdings to be in a stable currency that holds its value (20 years from now, ideally, if it weren't for gvt. Treasury printing more bills and devaluing your wealth).
The $US will not hold its value for the next 20 years. Inflation of at least 2% per year is planned. A 2% inflation rate implies depreciation of 1 - 1.02^(-20) = 0.327 or almost 1/3rd. Spendthrift Joe Biden (and many other Democrats) and the accommodating Federal Reserve likely means even greater depreciation.
Oher currencies, with a few possible exceptions like the Swiss franc, will depreciate even more.
2 hours ago, whYNOT said:There are two aspects, either it is a currency - or it is an investment.
2 hours ago, whYNOT said:But there's still a question of identity, fish or fowl. Speculation opportunity or -a currency. Which is it?
You like to pigeonhole.
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9 hours ago, whYNOT said:
Since I don't own Bitcoins I haven't any feelings.
LOL. You have expressed being very wary of cryptocurrency due to its price volatility (instability) and it having "no inherent or objective value/standard."
9 hours ago, whYNOT said:What would guarantee a crypto currency's longevity, not to add stability? The confidence of the Bitcoiners?
If you value stability so much, there are stablecoins (link).
I can't speak for all or most bitcoin fans. So I will only indicate some reasons for my own confidence.
1. Competition. There are several cryptocurrencies. Ethereum is 2nd most popular behind bitcoin. If a bitcoin holder gets wary, will he or she swap it for another cryptocurrency or a fiat currency?
2. The fan base and usages are growing. I have already indicated advantages of crypto for international transactions, collateral, and protection from fiat currency inflation.There is also its protection from government confiscation.
I'm not suggesting putting all of one's investment/savings in crypto or transacting in crypto as much as possible.
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2 hours ago, whYNOT said:
What's to stop bitcoin crashing in a year or two?
Be as fearful as you wish. I won't try to change your feelings.
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This has nothing about reincarnation, but is about Thomas Reid's philosophy.
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In the late 19th century, advocating the monetization of silver was quite popular.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_of_Gold_speech
I'm not aware that anyone proposed the dollar be equivalent to some amount of gold plus (not or) some amount of silver. Adopting such proposal would have been the first step toward money being backed by a basket of commodities (as advocated by Benjamin Graham and Friedrich von Hayek). The basket could have been modified over time to also include such things as crude oil and copy paper.
Graham's article "The Critique of Commodity-Reserve Currency: A Point-by-Point Reply" can be read in full on JSTOR with a free account.
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More obvious link: Harry Binswanger's 7-year old Forbes article
The article is outdated. Cryptocurrency is an international thing. Governments can battle cryptocurrencies, but they can't "win the war."
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1 hour ago, Boydstun said:
David Brooks
From Brooks' article: "I’m worried about a world in which we spend borrowed money with abandon. The skeptical headline on the final preretirement column of the great Washington Post economics columnist Steven Pearlstein resonated with me: 'In Democrats’ progressive paradise, borrowing is free, spending pays for itself and interest rates never rise.'”
I guess that Brooks believes this is not limited to Democrats. Many Republicans -- Donald Trump for sure -- believe likewise even if what they regard as "progressive" differs.
This prompts some speculation about future interest rates on U.S. federal government securities. Traditionally U.S. federal government securities have been the primary source of collateral for financial derivatives (futures, swaps, options), many loans, and required margin for investment accounts. Their use as collateral has thus upped the supply and demand for U.S. federal government securities. Something that began recently is use of Bitcoin for collateral (link). The extent of that now is very small. However, if it grows significantly, it will lessen the supply and demand for U.S. federal government securities. I suspect that will lead to an increase in interest rates on U.S. federal government securities. Like I wrote in my blog article: "Of course, reaching 3% or 4% instead of the current 1% implies the federal government's interest payments would triple or quadruple, and this would put pressure on other federal government spending."
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Here is another article regarding Ayn Rand's ethical theory by two Iranians. It isn't a screed and is mostly fair.
I don't like their label "ego-altruism" for their blend of egoism and altruism. I more like mutualism, which Henry Hazlitt used for his blend of egoism and altruism. Hazlitt coined "egaltruism" for the same concept, but liked mutualism more. (https://www.hazlitt.org/e-texts/morality/ch13.html).
While the authors gave examples of P1 acting for the benefit of P2 or P2...Pn, such as when the latter are friends or teammates, I believe there are stronger ones, e.g. P1's kin, co-workers, or business partner. These more stronger illustrate mutualism when P1's goal and the goal(s) of P2...Pn are the same or mutually beneficial.
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The following is the abstract of my article which is scheduled to appear in The Journal of Ayn Rand Studies in July.
Ayn Rand’s controversial use of “selfish” and “selfishness” has arguably done as much or more to supply “grist” to her critics and drive people away from her philosophy than to persuade people to adopt it. This article is about her meaning of “selfish” and the common, popular meaning. Succinctly, the former is a high-level abstraction, philosophical, and mainly a way of thinking, whereas the latter is a low-level abstraction, not philosophical, and mainly a way of acting. They also have different contrast terms.
Aristotle accepted that "selfish" (philautos in Greek) had two quite different meanings. I do, too.
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On 3/8/2021 at 5:51 AM, merjet said:
In this paper he argues or suggests that Aristotle did a somewhat similar thing with the Greek word philautos, which has most often been translated as “self-lover” or “lover of self", and less often "selfish."
Having now read most of Salmieri's article, which I had not when I wrote the above, there are significant similarities between the article and Chapter 6 of of A Companion to Ayn Rand. The article and Chapter 6 were written for different audiences -- the former for readers of philosophy journals and the latter for a much larger audience -- but do use some common themes.
For example, section 2 of the article says: "Pointedly rejecting or seeking to replace the conventional usage of a term is a tactic used by thinkers who want to challenge an entrenched belief that underlies the usage and that they think exerts a pernicious influence on ordinary thinking."
Chapter 6 says: "Rand’s stance here is like that of other thinkers who seek to reform language that they think reflects and reinforces widespread prejudices."
Salmieri even uses the same examples of "slut" and "queer" in both places. He writes about sacrifice in both places.
A difference is that Salmieri did not attribute Aristotle with trying to reform conventional language, but only with noting the different and inconsistent uses of philautos or "selfish behavior" by his contemporaries. Contrarily, Salmieri did attribute Ayn Rand with trying to reform conventional language.
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1 hour ago, Boydstun said:
Nichomachean Ethics ix 8 is lamentable by its craft of two distinct sorts of selfish conduct: one selfishness said to be reprehensible (because virtually all of us find it repugnant) and running with the selfishness of the self that is one’s passions; the other selfishness said to be good and praiseworthy conduct because, however dissolving of one’s passion-self-regard, it runs with the selfishness of being good, fine, noble, beautiful (ostensibly objective, but actually handwaving circles of conventionality) in accordance with the self that is one’s passion-vacated reason. Or so the chapter strikes me.
In a similar vein there are two distinct meanings of selfish or selfishness in today's world -- the common one and the one approved by Ayn Rand. That is the topic of my essay titled "Selfish Versus Selfish" coming in the July 2021 edition of The Journal of Ayn Rand Studies (noted earlier here).
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
in Economics
Posted · Edited by merjet
Gresham's law is often stated as "bad money drives out good". Wikipedia: "In economics, Gresham's law is a monetary principle stating that 'bad money drives out good'. For example, if there are two forms of commodity money in circulation, which are accepted by law as having similar face value, the more valuable commodity will gradually disappear from circulation" [my bold].
So "drive out" doesn't mean the good money no longer exists. Its role is more a store of value and less a medium of exchange. Bitcoin's situation doesn't seems to fit. It is becoming more a store of value and more a medium of exchange. Fiat currencies are becoming less a store of value and less a desired medium of exchange.