Reblogged:ICE to Disappear From Germany by 2030?

[Gus Van Horn blog]

Do take a moment to note that the following two headlines are from the same day: (1) "Experts Said Arctic Sea Ice Would Melt Entirely by September 2016 -- They Were Wrong," and (2) "German Lawmakers Vote to Ban the Internal Combustion Engine." The first article (which also brings up a few other of the many false prophecies of doom from the quasi-religious environmental movement) does not, however, quite make a case against the notion of man-made global warming. It does remind me of the two questions fossil fuel advocate Alex Epstein recommends asking in Forbes: (1) What exactly do the climate scientists agree on? (2) How do we know the 97% agree?

On top of this, the German ban on internal combustion engines reminds me of the following basic fallacy (of many) this movement can thank for whatever viability it has, which I learned from Epstein's The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels:

Looking at the big picture requires looking at all the benefits and risks to human life of doing something and not doing it. To do otherwise is to be biased in a way that could be very dangerous to human life. One thing I noticed repeatedly when looking at the wrong predictions was a distinct bias against fossil fuels. The focus would exclusively be on the negatives of fossil fuels, which were often exaggerated, and not on their positiveswhich, given the results, were clearly overwhelming. (p. 15)

Epstein concedes that there is global warming consistent with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (an effect which increases sublinearly with concentration), but he also considers the many beneficial effects of fossil fuel use (including a side-effect many will be surprised to learn about) and details the negatives of their supposed ("unreliable") alternatives.

Godwin's Lawnotwithstanding, I am tempted to say that the same nation that gave us Hitler is taking away the internal combustion engine. Instead, I'll be content to say that the same nation that is giving themselves "energy poverty" is taking the lead on giving it to the rest of us.

-- CAV

Link to Original

[Reidy]

Here's another trip down memory lane.

Check out the sources in the right column. The Natural Resources Defense Council link is especially interesting. The PolitiFact article says it consulted the article in 2009. Click on it today and you'll find the old article memory-holed in favor of one written in 2016. Not even the same title. The revised 2016 version avoids testable predictions before 2100 - when anybody who reads the article this year will be dead.

Edited October 11, 2016 by Reidy