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    Good Judgements

    By softwareNerd,

    For anyone interested in current events the prediction site Good Judgements provides a different perspective from what one gets via news. They pose questions about various events, and members try to predict the outcome. It is not a betting site: but they will score guesses. The events tend to be things you won;t read in the headlines. Sample questions: Will the AKP win a majority, plurality, or less in the upcoming Turkish elections? Will the heads of state of Iran and Saudi Arabia meet before Sept 1, 2016? and so on.

    Though the questions tend to be a bit narrow, they're just the tip. The factors and causes that surround each question are more interesting than the actual Yes/No outcome of the question itself. One can click on a question and see people's comments. There's a tab that shows only those comments that contain links. That's a way to get to relevant news items. Some members also write informative comments: better than your average journalist, since these people are writing for news-geeks like themselves.

    The web-site has a few links about its background, but -- briefly -- it was a closed research project for 4 or 5 years, asking people to make predictions, and comparing these to predictions made by experts. They claim that their crowd-sourced predictions were better than those from CIA analysts (the research was part of the government's research into such things).

    The site is in open beta now, and they'll probably add more features as time goes on.

    • 7 replies

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