Reblogged: The Democrats' Demographic Delusion

[Gus Van Horn blog]

Good news, in terms of the short-term political fortunes of the Democratic Party, comes from an article in the New Republic. Said article warns the Democrats that its "white working class problem" can't be solved simply by writing off the South. I think the warning will go unheeded despite the fact that the article supports its contention by re-analyzing the data the Democrats are betting on. Crucial to this re-analysis is a breakdown of the country into "a set of regions that more closely mirrors the basic, underlying sociological and political divisions in the nation" -- rather than just Central-Northeast-West-South. The article concludes:

Many Democrats would prefer not to have to face this monumental organization challenge, hoping instead that the existing Obama coalition and demographic changes in America will prove sufficient to elect a president in 2016, hold the Senate, and weaken GOP control over the House of Representatives. But the harsh reality for Democrats is that they cannot achieve all three of these objectives without increasing their support among white working class Americans--and if Democrats keep telling themselves that "the problem is just the South," that support may decrease instead.

I'd go further, based on my experiences of growing up in the South and of living in the Northeast for several years. From what I can tell, from encounters with angry leftists (e.g., "Republican people" used as a direct insult (I am not a Republican.)) and from overhearing conversations in public (e.g., "some hick from Texas" as shorthand for "white Southerner"), many Democrats like to imagine that nothing has changed in the South in the past half-century plus, and are quite happy to write off any fair-skinned individual from that part of the country. And, based on my reading of left-wing commentary, I think that most Democrats would also prefer not to question their policies or why they don't appeal to large swaths of "working class whites". It's easy to be smug when one can assume that the whole problem is due to a bunch of easily-marginalized hicks.

May the donkey keep its blinders on! Perhaps this will buy more time for cultural change and the emergence of a significant pro-individual rights electoral bloc. I hold out little hope for an improvement from the GOP, but perhaps its short-term profit can stall our headlong march into tyranny.

-- CAV

Link to Original

[CrowEpistemologist]

The Repubs in the South (and in the WWC) are there because of religion and primitive tribalism. Insofar as the Demos made any headway against them, that would indicate that the political grip of religion is loosening. Why would the opposite be a good thing?

 

Truck drivers and the like vote against raising the minimum wage--and thus their own wage--because they think that's what God wants, not because they are admirers of Adam Smith.

 

Tell yourself whatever you want to make yourself feel better, but all you're seeing is some of the ebb and flow of warring tyrants, not any change that makes any difference.