Penn vs Stevenson - "Keys to the Fight"

[dan_edge]

By Dan Edge from The Edge of Reason,cross-posted by MetaBlog

The UFC website posted a "keys to the fight" analysis yesterday on the upcoming Lightweight championship bout between BJ Penn and Joe Stevenson here.

From that article: "...Penn is so talented that the outcome of a fight rarely depends on what his opponent does in the ring. He doesn’t need to key off any one Stevenson weakness. He doesn’t need to worry about avoiding any particular Stevenson strength."

Considering Joe's Lightweight record and his dominant performances in the UFC, I'm surprised that the UFC website writers consider Penn to be such a heavy favorite. I mean, Penn "doesn’t need to worry about ... Stevenson['s] strength"?

If Penn is as intelligent a fighter as he seems, I'm sure he is not taking this perspective. One can be sure that Penn is busy in the gym working on a game plan with his trainers to deal with Joe's considerable strengths, and exploit his relative weaknesses. If Penn takes the attitude that he can just come in and impose his will, without taking Joe's heavy hands and grappling skills into account, then we're in for a very short fight.

Fortunately for fight fans, I seriously doubt that Penn is taking Joe lightly -- which means that we're in for an exciting bout that could go the distance.

I hesitate to make a prediction since I'm such a big Joe "Daddy" fan, but I'll do it anyway. If Penn pushes the pace early and spends most of the first two rounds on top of Joe, then I'd have to give the advantage to Penn. But if Penn is unable to maintain a dominant position for the first two and a half rounds, I don't think he will have what it takes to go the distance with Joe.

My upset prediction: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson wins by unanimous decision after five rounds of exciting MMA action.

--Dan Edge

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