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Make your bets: How long will the Obama administration last?

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How long will the Obama administration last?  

45 members have voted

  1. 1. How long do you think the Obama administration is likely to last?

    • Less than 2 years
      2
    • Around 3 years
      2
    • 4 years
      16
    • More than 4 years but less than 8
      2
    • 8 years
      14
    • More than 8 years
      3


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Uh, it will last either four or eight years, exactly, unless Obama either dies, resigns or is impeached and then convicted by the US Senate. There has been one resignation so far in US history, and two cases of impeachment, neither of which resulted in conviction by the US Senate.

In essence the presidency is about as guaranteed duration as any job can be. So I am not sure what the idea behind this poll is. (Perhaps you are thinking more along the lines of a parliamentary system where the head of government can be removed via "no confidence"?)

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Uh, it will last either four or eight years, exactly, unless Obama either dies, resigns or is impeached and then convicted by the US Senate.

Obama could comit any number of serious crimes while in office and he wouldn't be impeached, because no one would report it but Little Green Footballs and Michelle Malkin.

It will be interesting to see how long his press honeymoon lasts, though. My guess if at least four years, because any criticism of Obama¿s policies will be shouted down as racist.

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I said more than 8 years, because I understand that there is a push for an amendment to extend the term limit, just because of Obama.

Actually it's for the *repeal* of the 22nd amendment.

As to my own opinion on how long the administration will last, I do not know. If Obama goes through with his previous economic stimulus plan where he taxes the "windfall" (?) profits of the oil companies and redistributes them to workers, then I would say four years since the disastrous repercussions would be immediate and he would be without time for a scapegoat. If, however, it's the case that he can temper his poison and make things go downhill on rusty wheels, then it's up in the air.

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Uh, it will last either four or eight years, exactly, unless Obama either dies, resigns or is impeached and then convicted by the US Senate. There has been one resignation so far in US history, and two cases of impeachment, neither of which resulted in conviction by the US Senate.

In essence the presidency is about as guaranteed duration as any job can be. So I am not sure what the idea behind this poll is. (Perhaps you are thinking more along the lines of a parliamentary system where the head of government can be removed via "no confidence"?)

You're mistaking me for a European. B) Yes, part of the idea behind the poll is to make predictions about whether Obama will either die, resign, or be impeached and then convicted by the US Senate within the next 4 years.

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As to my own opinion on how long the administration will last, I do not know. If Obama goes through with his previous economic stimulus plan where he taxes the "windfall" (?) profits of the oil companies and redistributes them to workers, then I would say four years since the disastrous repercussions would be immediate and he would be without time for a scapegoat.

Nonsense! He can always say, "you think it's bad now? Imagine how bad it would be if I had done nothing!"

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Nonsense! He can always say, "you think it's bad now? Imagine how bad it would be if I had done nothing!"

But that's presupposing he can actually say something of substance in his speeches. B)

Edit: To answer NickS' request of a link.

Edited by Benpercent
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I'm ever the optimist B) I said 4 years.

By the end of the first year the media honeymoon will be over, they (the media) need scandal and bad news. The only reason JFK and his brother are still revered is because they were still in the love-in stage when they were murdered. I don't think Obama's shine is going to last as long as JFK's.

By the second year the Dem's will loose the Senate. Too many people are expecting way too much from this administration for them to be all happy go lucky when they still see the economy circling the drain after 18-20 months. and most of those people are not the ones who pay really close attention to politics, they won't understand that their expectations were RTFOTL.

By year 3 the Republicans will have gathered their poop in a group so that they know who their next candidate will be (in essence if not in fact) and the attacks will begin. Since they have control of the senate they will put a bullet in one of the messiah's wings rendering him lame and they will hammer him for the scandals to come.

By the 4th year the Republican war machine has already decimated the Dems, like Stalin did the Polish officer Corps and they will fight their way to a close victory whith the Dems howling bloody murder when the vote count is close again.

* I think scandal will destroy this presidency more than economic mismanagement... unfortunately Americans will in large continue to be more interested in the First Lady's dress, and stains on interns dresses than actual political and governmental issues.

Edited by Zip
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The Ron Paul faction will probably spoil the chances of the future Republican candidate. We all know how huge their movement was this election – well, by the next election they'll already be organized, fully staffed with precinct captains, better educated in their ideology/austrian economics, they'll have the added experience in activism and fundraising, they'll have their donor lists, and they'll draw in a large number of independents who are sick of the current system, as well as a large amount of the disillusioned young people who formerly voted for Obama, believing that he would bring about change. The Ron Paul candidate and the Republican candidate will most likely ruin each others chances, prolonging the status quo (and the odds of the Ron Paul candidate being the Republican candidate are very slim, considering his likely foreign policy and his somewhat crazed followers, who'll turn off half of the population).

Edited by JMartins
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I think it's unlikely the Democrats will lose the Senate in 2010. 2004 was a GOP year, which means the crop of senators up for election in 2010 contains more Republicans than Democrats. In that context, picking up 10 seats (which is what would be required for control to change) would be a real uphill battle. 2012 and 2014 will skew Republican, because the Democrats gained so many seats in 2006 and 2008.

The House is more likely to change hands in 2010 than the Senate, and I'm not even holding my breath on that.

As for the 2012 Presidential election, are there any realistic candidates on offer who wouldn't be disasters themselves? There isn't a Reagan-in-waiting, at least not that I can think of.

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The move to repeal the 22nd amendment dates back to at least 1997, from what I understand, and has little to do with Obama. It hasn't been successful obviously, but Obama's present popularity, if it continues, might be sufficient to get the job done finally.

On his farewell address reagan urged a repeal of that ammendment to much applause from the audience.

BTW, let's try a side bet. If Obama goes the full 8 years, will either of the following things happen:

1) He'll dump Joe Biden from the ticket for his second term

2) If he doesn't dump Joe, will Biden have a chance to obtain the Democratic nomination in 2016? (absent Bush and Palin to kick around, the media should start reporting Biden's verbals slips more often)

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I doubt they will bother reporting his gaffes, after all he is only the vice president. (Logic which does not work when it is a politically conservative vice president; they are all without fail morons, after all.)

Biden will be 74 in 2016 making him more of a geezer than McCain is today (72). Whether or not the media would allow that to become an issue is another matter. It's possible Obama will change to someone else to groom a successor as his running mate in 2012.

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  • 4 weeks later...

At least 4. Although I think most of you are forgetting the economy in all of this. If it continues to get worse and worse, it would create a nice opening for someone like, say, Sarah Palin to come and (rightly) place the blame on government intervention.

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At least 4. Although I think most of you are forgetting the economy in all of this. If it continues to get worse and worse, it would create a nice opening for someone like, say, Sarah Palin to come and (rightly) place the blame on government intervention.

I agree. The dollar is going to weaken so fast that nobody will be able to take four more years. Already I think the Dow is worth only 4 ounces of gold and we haven’t even got started yet.

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I say four years. I think most Americans already realize how awful he is and will certainly feel the same in four years. (Just like Jimmy Carter.) Then they will proceed to vote in a Republican that's just as bad. Back and forth, back and forth, getting worse each time. (Isn't that already the pattern?)

Of course, if they succeed with controlling the Census Bureau then perhaps he can gerrymander his way into a second term. Or he could just go Chavez style with more corruption and voter fraud (see ACORN, which just got "stimulated"), eventually leading to a third term. :(

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Obama has shown his colors. He has chosen people who are socialists, corrupt, extremist environmentalists, racist militants, and he is doing everything wrong.

Now, all that's left is for America to show its colors:

Maybe his election was just a freak event, a result of Bush's and the Republican leadership's horrible failure, coupled with Obama being the only candidate in any way attractive or with a decent personality. And we're living twelve years in which America has been deceived by a couple of particularly dishonest campaigns. Then, there's a chance that enough people will learn.

Or, it could be that America has lost its sense of what is right, and the current leadership represents the majority perfectly. In this second case, he will maintain his popularity, and probably get reelected. And the country is on an irreversible path towards destruction. If what Obama has obviously set out to do is what most Americans consider right, then I see no way to change their minds before they can experience the full consequences of their ideas and morality.

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