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Who gets your vote on Tuesday?

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  1. 1. Whom will you vote for as President (or have already voted for)

    • Mitt Romney
    • Barack Obama
    • Gary Johnson
    • Other party's candidate
    • Write in candidate
    • Will not vote even though I can legally do so
    • Cannot vote in U.S. election 2012

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Rasmussen didn't predict a Romney landslide, you did. And you based it on unscientific conspiracy theories about various other pollsters and their alleged Democratic bias, not on anything from Rasmussen.

Also, Rasmussen, unlike the other polls, did use political affiliation when weighting the responses. The other polls did not, they recognized that political affiliations change, and instead stuck to weighting responses based only on constants like demographics. That makes them slightly less accurate on occasion (whenever Rasmussen gets party affiliation right by luck) but far more reliable.

This time, Rasmussen didn't, so he was significantly off. Not as off as you though. Care to offer an explanation on where you went wrong?

In retrospect, you are right except on one point : I wasn't attributing the apparent anomaly in the polls to any conspiracy. Congrats to Obama for winning a second term. I still think he's a disaster though.

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In retrospect, you are right ... ...
A day before the election, I was talking to a friend about betting on the election (e.g. on the InTrade site). I was telling him that if I looked at numbers from the polls alone, I'd have to give Obama an edge (InTrade odds of 7:3 in favor of Obama seemed reasonable). However, if I used the anecdotal evidence available to me, ignoring the polls, I would give Romney a small edge.

The anecdotal evidence was my acquaintances who voted for Obama the last time but were talking about voting for Romney this time. Though a small minority, it seemed like there was enough to let Romney squeak over the line. Of course, the real problem is that my anecdotal evidence is obviously skewed to a certain middle-class, mostly white and asian profile. Romney probably did squeak through among that cohort.

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Intrade showed Obama with strong numbers for the better part of the last year (over 75% if memory serves). About a month ago, his numbers started to plunge toward 50% likelyhood with Romney showing a steady climb. The last two weeks reversed that trend with Obama holding a 65+% on the morning of the election.

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